I mean, his assumptions were what was wrong in the first place,

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Mar 26, 2020
2:30:56pm

CSoul Intervention Needed

I mean, his assumptions were what was wrong in the first place,

so his new assumptions couldn't possibly be wrong... His projections were not just a little off, but egregiously off. His revelation of what he used to model clearly shows the guy doesn't follow best practices in modeling. He isn't even a modeler. But anyway, there is a group of 10 of you that will defend this guy to your grave, so it's pointless.

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CSoul

Previous username: tsm26
Bio page: CSoul
Joined: Nov 20, 2005
Last login: Jun 20, 2024
Total posts: 67,324 (14,165 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

So I took the time to read the latest release from Imperial College

coolcats

3/26/20 2:16pm

That's the trouble here. The efforts government went to trying to mitigate the

SandYFan

3/26/20 2:18pm

We can look to Sweden to know. They have taken few if any measures

CocaColaRecovery

3/26/20 2:21pm

Impossible to extrapolate a small country's experience to the US.

SandYFan

3/26/20 2:22pm

Is Italy considered small? Particularly Lombardy?

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 2:22pm

Yes. You'll note I've never said a thing about Italy.

SandYFan

3/26/20 2:23pm

I don’t follow you to know if that is true or not.

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 2:24pm

Of course they have. It's been impossible to miss.

SandYFan

3/26/20 2:26pm

Totally possible

CocaColaRecovery

3/26/20 2:26pm

Here's the problem I have - in line with what you're saying...

Eddie

3/26/20 2:23pm

The trouble is that mitigation works??

3/26/20 2:26pm

What are you thoughts on the Oxford analysis? Particularly this part:

boogers

3/26/20 2:21pm

Why is this expert to be trusted? Because they are saying what you believe?

SandYFan

3/26/20 2:21pm

ah...I asked the question first? Why do you want the Imperial Model to be

boogers

3/26/20 2:22pm

I don't. I'm very much on the fence here. You, on the other hand,

SandYFan

3/26/20 2:24pm

RE: I don't. I'm very much on the fence here. You, on the other hand,

boogers

3/26/20 2:26pm

You're on the fence? Anyone with an ounce of sanity should desperately want the

BYUMizzou

3/26/20 2:29pm

Why is what we want to be true even relevant here?

SandYFan

3/26/20 2:29pm

RE: Why is what we want to be true even relevant here?

BYUMizzou

3/26/20 2:33pm

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

3/26/20 2:33pm

Test as much as possible

coolcats

3/26/20 2:22pm

Maybe we should stop payment on the 2 trillion dollar check

Josef K

3/26/20 2:22pm

I would be ok with that. Lift the restrictions and get back to work.

kotacoug

3/26/20 2:25pm

Pretty convenient. I mean how can one argue?

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 2:22pm

We can absolutely see the benefits of shutting down in the trends

Josef K

3/26/20 2:24pm

Didn’t U.K. have the herd mentality only a week ago?

JohnnyComeLately

3/26/20 2:26pm

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

3/26/20 3:04pm

I mean, his assumptions were what was wrong in the first place,

CSoul

3/26/20 2:30pm

I mean I guess you decided not to read the content

coolcats

3/26/20 2:33pm

Yeah, now that I've read the study, the overreaction on this board seems silly.

chilango

3/26/20 2:44pm

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

3/26/20 3:35pm

Those are the numbers his original paper contained. For the UK, 500K deaths if

chilango

3/26/20 3:47pm

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

3/26/20 4:31pm

Can you provide a specific example of the "dramatic" reduction you mention?

chilango

3/26/20 4:46pm

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

3/26/20 5:45pm

The fact that we are 3 days into a lockdown (or 10, or 0) is irrelevant. He

chilango

3/26/20 5:54pm

If you haven't read the paper, here it is. Go to page 13 for the relevant table

chilango

3/26/20 6:00pm

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