but it's mostly because I appear to be stronger on his NFL prospects.
I think he goes in the 4th round...maybe the 3rd, maybe the 5th, but definitely drafted. And if he gets drafted as a QB, he's pretty much making the roster.
But you're right that his stock fell this year. Another bad year would mean he likely wouldn't be drafted or make a roster. Sure it would be great to have a big year and move up to a 2nd/3rd rounder instead of the 4th round... but that upside isn't as huge as the downside of going undrafted if he comes back a year and is hurt or performs poorly.