This "question" has long been answered. ALWAYS switch your pick.

Jan 5, 2015
9:39:44pm

ClackamasCoug

This was a subject on Myth Busters. They proved unequivocally that's it's always better to switch from your original pick.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Jan 5, 2015 at 9:39:44pm

Message modified by ClackamasCoug on Jan 5, 2015 at 9:42:10pm

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ClackamasCoug

Previous username: JimWest
Bio page: ClackamasCoug
Joined: Dec 13, 2004
Last login: Feb 3, 2024
Total posts: 17,470 (472 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

There are three doors before you: behind one is a million dollars in 100 dollar

OhYePoorFools

1/5/15 9:15pm

Are there really people that don't know this by now?

cheezedawg

1/5/15 9:16pm

Well, cheezedawg if you must ask, I had never heard of it until recently reading

OhYePoorFools

1/5/15 9:17pm

This should be one of the questions on the CB final exam...

Alister Mackenzie

1/5/15 9:18pm

*Entrace* exam

cheezedawg

1/5/15 9:46pm

Both have a 66% chance of having the million.

Ragnar Danneskjold

1/5/15 9:18pm

Or 50%.

GastonCoug

1/5/15 9:19pm

Here we go

jokerman

1/5/15 9:20pm

I know, right?

Ragnar Danneskjold

1/5/15 9:23pm

No, you forgot to carry the 1.

Alister Mackenzie

1/5/15 9:24pm

Each at 166%. Are your parents related or something?

Ragnar Danneskjold

1/5/15 9:28pm

But that's the gift that keeps on giving all year long

El Pasco

1/5/15 9:22pm

My sister and her husband got in a fight about this.

garyfan

1/5/15 9:24pm

Wasn't that a scene from the movie 21?

OpusX

1/5/15 9:26pm

the answer is that it is always to your advantage to switch. The trick lies in

OhYePoorFools

1/5/15 9:27pm

Assuming the host does know I agree, but what if the host does not?

BYUALWAYSNUM1

1/5/15 9:39pm

the same odds exist. If the host does not know what lies behind the doors he wil

OhYePoorFools

1/5/15 9:44pm

A better way to word it is there are greater odds that the winning door is among

OhYePoorFools

1/5/15 9:41pm

RE: A better way to word it is there are greater odds that the winning door is

joebravo

1/6/15 9:40am

No your odds improve because the host is eliminating half of the

OhYePoorFools

1/6/15 4:54pm

I know the correct answer, but I still don't understand why it is the correct

Cosmo Kramer

1/5/15 9:38pm

I'll try.

garyfan

1/5/15 9:44pm

I've heard this puzzle so many times, and this is the first

jayriggity

1/5/15 11:41pm

Interesting..

joebravo

1/6/15 9:43am

OhYePoorFools has a good summary above

cheezedawg

1/5/15 9:46pm

It seems counter-intuitive that the odds would increase, but the reason is

darkcoug

1/5/15 9:47pm

Imagine you're picking from 100 doors instead of 3.

SteveOrr

1/5/15 10:02pm

Here's the best way to understand the math of it.

maizecoug

1/5/15 11:04pm

This "question" has long been answered. ALWAYS switch your pick.

ClackamasCoug

1/5/15 9:39pm

There is no such thing as 100 million dollar bill.

idacoug

1/5/15 9:44pm

Always switch.

Talker

1/5/15 9:50pm

Here's a link to simple simulator of this situation (it's called the Monty Hall

dilbert

1/5/15 10:28pm

I just did a 10 game example, and my score was 8/2 for winning on the switch.

ClackamasCoug

1/6/15 10:07am

Yeah, that's enough to see that it clearly isn't anywhere close

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