It seems counter-intuitive that the odds would increase, but the reason is

Jan 5, 2015
9:47:36pm

darkcoug

because the host is omniscient and always eliminates an incorrect choice if you switch. If you don't switch, you have the same odds as before.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Jan 5, 2015 at 9:47:36pm

Message modified by darkcoug on Jan 5, 2015 at 9:48:17pm

Report problem with this ad

darkcoug

Bio page: darkcoug
Joined: Jan 31, 2005
Last login: Jun 11, 2024
Total posts: 49,288 (299 FO)

Report problem with this ad

Messages

Author

Time

There are three doors before you: behind one is a million dollars in 100 dollar

OhYePoorFools

1/5/15 9:15pm

Are there really people that don't know this by now?

cheezedawg

1/5/15 9:16pm

Well, cheezedawg if you must ask, I had never heard of it until recently reading

OhYePoorFools

1/5/15 9:17pm

This should be one of the questions on the CB final exam...

Alister Mackenzie

1/5/15 9:18pm

*Entrace* exam

cheezedawg

1/5/15 9:46pm

Both have a 66% chance of having the million.

Ragnar Danneskjold

1/5/15 9:18pm

Or 50%.

GastonCoug

1/5/15 9:19pm

Here we go

jokerman

1/5/15 9:20pm

I know, right?

Ragnar Danneskjold

1/5/15 9:23pm

No, you forgot to carry the 1.

Alister Mackenzie

1/5/15 9:24pm

Each at 166%. Are your parents related or something?

Ragnar Danneskjold

1/5/15 9:28pm

But that's the gift that keeps on giving all year long

El Pasco

1/5/15 9:22pm

My sister and her husband got in a fight about this.

garyfan

1/5/15 9:24pm

Wasn't that a scene from the movie 21?

OpusX

1/5/15 9:26pm

the answer is that it is always to your advantage to switch. The trick lies in

OhYePoorFools

1/5/15 9:27pm

Assuming the host does know I agree, but what if the host does not?

BYUALWAYSNUM1

1/5/15 9:39pm

the same odds exist. If the host does not know what lies behind the doors he wil

OhYePoorFools

1/5/15 9:44pm

A better way to word it is there are greater odds that the winning door is among

OhYePoorFools

1/5/15 9:41pm

RE: A better way to word it is there are greater odds that the winning door is

joebravo

1/6/15 9:40am

No your odds improve because the host is eliminating half of the

OhYePoorFools

1/6/15 4:54pm

I know the correct answer, but I still don't understand why it is the correct

Cosmo Kramer

1/5/15 9:38pm

I'll try.

garyfan

1/5/15 9:44pm

I've heard this puzzle so many times, and this is the first

jayriggity

1/5/15 11:41pm

Interesting..

joebravo

1/6/15 9:43am

OhYePoorFools has a good summary above

cheezedawg

1/5/15 9:46pm

It seems counter-intuitive that the odds would increase, but the reason is

darkcoug

1/5/15 9:47pm

Imagine you're picking from 100 doors instead of 3.

SteveOrr

1/5/15 10:02pm

Here's the best way to understand the math of it.

maizecoug

1/5/15 11:04pm

This "question" has long been answered. ALWAYS switch your pick.

ClackamasCoug

1/5/15 9:39pm

There is no such thing as 100 million dollar bill.

idacoug

1/5/15 9:44pm

Always switch.

Talker

1/5/15 9:50pm

Here's a link to simple simulator of this situation (it's called the Monty Hall

dilbert

1/5/15 10:28pm

I just did a 10 game example, and my score was 8/2 for winning on the switch.

ClackamasCoug

1/6/15 10:07am

Yeah, that's enough to see that it clearly isn't anywhere close

Posting on CougarBoard