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Jan 5, 2015
9:44:45pm
I'll try.
Assume the prize is behind Door 1.

Scenario 1: You select Door 1

In this case, the host reveals either Door 2 or Door 3. If you switch, you are definitely switching to a door with no prize. In this scenario, you lose by switching.

Scenario 2: You select Door 2

In this case, the host reveals Door 3 because the prize is behind Door 1 and you selected Door 2. If you switch, you are switching from Door 2 to Door 1, and you win the prize. In this scenario, you win by switching.

Scenario 3: You select Door 3

In this case, the host reveals Door 2 because the prize is behind Door 1 and you selected Door 3. If you switch, you are switching from Door 3 to Door 1, and you win the prize. In this scenario, you win by switching.

Conclusion: By having a rule of switching every time, you will be switching to the door with the prize 2 out of 3 times, or 67% of the time. On the other hand, by not switching and sticking with your original choice, you only win the prize 1 out of 3 times, or 33% of the time, which were your original odds of selecting the correct door at the beginning of the game.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Jan 5, 2015 at 9:44:45pm
Message modified by garyfan on Jan 5, 2015 at 9:45:01pm
Message modified by garyfan on Jan 5, 2015 at 10:27:42pm
Message modified by garyfan on Jan 5, 2015 at 10:28:19pm
garyfan
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garyfan
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