With that being said, I have taken several probability and statistics courses. I understand exactly where you got the 1 in 7710. (17 permutations of 1) = 17. Then 17 *2^-17 = 1 in 7710. (Also I believe that this exercise is technically "probability theory" and not statistics, but still a worthwhile discussion as the two are certainly related.) You should also understand that in a in most probability systems future outcomes are not based on past events. (E.g. flipping a fair coin 5 times in a row and getting heads each time does not change the probability of the next flip). Of course the NBA is not "memoryless" probability system and you can certainly look to past years to predict future outcomes as statistics comes into play.

Now, I'm not sure how you can say that since 16 of the past 17 years were won by the West refutes a "trend" occurring. It definitely demonstrates (given the probability you showed and I repeated) that it has been the better conference during those years, but it certainly does not refute that a trend over the last several years is occurring.

Also, to be fair to me, the "trend" I pointed out was based on the change in games over the last 3 years (not just one year) which I admit is still a small sample size, but I would say it is still significant given the relatively few years.

I hope you don't take any offense to this, as I certainly did not to your post. It's just fun internet banter. Go Pacers!