Assuming that failed attempts don't change the chances of dying on your next attempt, the odds of surviving

May 21, 2018
11:48:42am

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

7 attempts is 89% (this also assumes that non-death failures and successes result in the same survivorship probability). But then the odds of dying on the 8th would still be 1 in 60.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on May 21, 2018 at 11:48:42am

Message modified by Indy Coug on May 21, 2018 at 11:49:13am

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Indy Coug

Bio page: Indy Coug
Joined: Dec 20, 2001
Last login: May 7, 2024
Total posts: 184,874 (9,840 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Japanese climber dies on eighth attempt on Everest

RC Vikings

5/21/18 11:15am

Never give up. You can accomplish anything if you put your mind to it. If at first you don't succeed,

Indy Coug

5/21/18 11:17am

If at first you don't succeed...

cougfanblue

5/21/18 11:20am

RE: Never give up. You can accomplish anything if you put your mind to it. If

donnerstag

5/21/18 11:23am

Man who catch fly with chopstick, accomplish anything. I guess he should have

WDaddy

5/21/18 12:15pm

<< Deleted >>

Cretin

5/21/18 11:21am

Smart man. More people die on their way down from summit than they do on the way up, they don't leave themselves...

BengalCougar

5/21/18 11:25am

In one sense, the Japanese climber went home

braddahmike

5/21/18 11:25am

RE: Japanese climber dies on eighth attempt on Everest

BengalCougar

5/21/18 11:23am

Article said they found him dead in his tent — sounded like alone. He may not have been on a fully guided trip.

lightmann

5/21/18 11:55am

Odds are 1 in 60 to die, 1 in 4 for 60 year olds

OU Cougar

5/21/18 11:40am

I'm not sure that's how stats work. I still think it's 1 in 60 every time you

Fatalplacebo

5/21/18 11:44am

Assuming that failed attempts don't change the chances of dying on your next attempt, the odds of surviving

Indy Coug

5/21/18 11:48am

IOW: chance of surviving 7 attempts is 1-in-9. Surviving 8 attempts is 1-in-8

JadoX

5/21/18 12:28pm

<< Deleted >>

donnerstag

5/21/18 12:30pm

Sherpa's climb that peak 100s of times a year, who gives a crap if

kotacoug

5/21/18 11:49am

But there's some blind, one-legged person just dying to become the next "first" to summit it.

Indy Coug

5/21/18 11:51am

Oh it's still very much an accomplishment, just because it's easier and safer than it used to be does not..

BengalCougar

5/21/18 11:54am

If you have money and want to put your life

kotacoug

5/21/18 12:15pm

It's not a technically difficult climb, but that has never been the challenge of Everest. And no you probably can't...

BengalCougar

5/21/18 12:26pm

It's still a huge accomplishment. Certainly more than meh.

kolob32

5/21/18 11:55am

Why don’t you go try it and tell everyone how

Jdoc

5/21/18 11:55am

It's easy when you have thousands of years of evolutionary adaptations to help you at that elevation

Indy Coug

5/21/18 11:57am

That makes the feat more achievable, but that

Jdoc

5/21/18 12:00pm

Even with oxygen, it's extremely difficult, more people are attempting each year

kolob32

5/21/18 12:06pm

No experienced mountaineer would say the climbing Everst is easy.

lightmann

5/21/18 12:09pm

It's easier for Sherpa's compared to others, but it is not easy for them.

BengalCougar

5/21/18 12:00pm

And let me clarify, are you saying that individual Sherpa's climb it hundreds of times a year?

BengalCougar

5/21/18 11:57am

on the whole Sherpa's climb the thing every year numerous times.

kotacoug

5/21/18 12:07pm

22 is the world record # of summits for one sherpa

donnerstag

5/21/18 12:16pm

That took him 2 decades to accomplish that as well.

kolob32

5/21/18 12:21pm

I know very well what Sherpa's do, but very few of them summit more than once a year. Kami Rita Sherpa holds...

BengalCougar

5/21/18 12:16pm

The last stretch is brutal

donnerstag

5/21/18 12:19pm

Simply having the financial means to get there is an accomplishment

Probable Sacko

5/21/18 12:02pm

Not true. There's only a small window to climb it

donnerstag

5/21/18 12:05pm

Plus, the sherpas aren't really there to summit. They are mainly restocking

kolob32

5/21/18 12:09pm

Watch Everest.

mudpupper

5/21/18 12:10pm

Here's the death rate of Sherpas compared to other traditionally dangerous jobs.

cougfanblue

5/21/18 12:50pm

if your life goal is to climb Everest... you'll want to rethink your life...

Pretorian

5/21/18 12:21pm

There are certain personality types attracted to climbing Everest

donnerstag

5/21/18 12:32pm

I'm not sure masochistic is the right word. I don't think most of them actually enjoy the pain.

cougfanblue

5/21/18 12:54pm

Egotistical maybe?

Pretorian

5/21/18 3:10pm

I find myself assuming that most people who do really hard things are egotistical.

cougfanblue

5/21/18 3:15pm

Mostly those that do unnecisarry things that are really hard then do all they

Pretorian

5/21/18 5:00pm

Oh, so it’s the same as those people with26.2 stickers on their car

Pretorian

5/21/18 3:09pm

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