Probability of beating UW is 32.0%

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Sep 19, 2019
7:19:22am

BeefNoodleSoup All-American

Probability of beating UW is 32.0%

We are 6.5 point underdogs. That means we will lose by an average of 6.5 points if we play this game over and over again.

The point spread is off by an average of 0 points with a standard deviation of 13.86.

Plug that into R, and our probability of winning is:

> pnorm(0,mean=6.5,sd=13.86)
[1] 0.3195436

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BeefNoodleSoup

Previous username: ChinoCoug
New username: Genghis Spreads
Bio page: BeefNoodleSoup
Joined: Feb 23, 2004
Last login: Oct 25, 2019
Total posts: 0 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Probability of beating UW is 32.0%

9/19/19 7:19am

Where did you get the standard deviation?

a priori

9/19/19 7:21am

That's for the NFL, based on Winston's Mathletics. I think the number for

9/19/19 7:24am

Actually, the standard deviation for NCAA is 15.82.

9/19/19 7:36am

That gets to 34.1%

Big Tuna

9/19/19 8:05am

yup

9/19/19 8:06am

ESPN’s FPI says 34.9%, so very close.

chilango

9/19/19 7:23am

To recalculate using NCAA data for my prior, I get 34.1%

9/19/19 7:38am

repeating of course

Twin Roots

9/19/19 9:03am

That's IF you agree with the spread. SP+ has 28.8%

molodyets

9/19/19 7:29am

Teamratings has 33.6%, FPI 34.9%, and Sagarin only 16%

jreid191

9/19/19 7:57am

Sagarins early ratings weight prior years. S&P is the same. I would expect the

jkccoug

9/19/19 12:33pm

Every system uses prior years data because it improves accuracy.

molodyets

9/19/19 1:08pm

Early on that’s certainly true

jkccoug

9/19/19 2:03pm

Not bad

Blueto

9/19/19 7:30am

Since 1997, underdogs of 4-7 pts have won outright 35% of the time

BlueFrog

9/19/19 7:35am

Wonder how many of that 35% were the home dog

volleyjiver

9/19/19 7:45am

not at a place to get that info. but.... Since 1997 BYU was won 6 of 11 games as a Home dog of 4-7 pts

BlueFrog

9/19/19 7:54am

Point spread already accounts for Home/Road

9/19/19 7:56am

Wrong. Probability is 50%. We either beat them or we don’t 😉.

9/19/19 7:43am

There's a possibility of a no-contest if the game is impacted by weather!

ryebrye

9/19/19 7:47am

With those odds you should play the lottery more often

astroman

9/19/19 8:49am

I like these odds compared to what I think will happen

SouthernBlueBlood

9/19/19 7:45am

For Python Users:

9/19/19 7:48am

It is roughly the same as rolling 6 dice and not rolling a single "6"

ryebrye

9/19/19 7:53am

You're not coming with me to Vegas.

9/19/19 8:42am

Is that based on a normal distribution? Where do you get the statistics?

The Dark Knight

9/19/19 7:57am

Yes, it's normal.

9/19/19 8:00am

Thanks!

The Dark Knight

9/19/19 8:05am

Sean Connery said it better as a Scot-accented Russian:

d-coug

9/19/19 8:27am

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