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Sep 19, 2019
12:33
:07
pm
jkccoug
All-American
Sagarins early ratings weight prior years. S&P is the same. I would expect the
Spread to be the best predictor. Either way it’s 2/3 we lose.
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jkccoug
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Socrates Johnson
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jkccoug
Joined
Jul 19, 2002
Last login
Oct 13, 2021
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Messages
Author
Time
Probability of beating UW is 32.0%
BeefNoodleSoup
9/19/19 7:19am
Where did you get the standard deviation?
a priori
9/19/19 7:21am
That's for the NFL, based on Winston's
Mathletics
. I think the number for
BeefNoodleSoup
9/19/19 7:24am
Actually, the standard deviation for NCAA is 15.82.
BeefNoodleSoup
9/19/19 7:36am
That gets to 34.1%
Big Tuna
9/19/19 8:05am
yup
BeefNoodleSoup
9/19/19 8:06am
ESPN’s FPI says 34.9%, so very close.
chilango
9/19/19 7:23am
To recalculate using NCAA data for my prior, I get 34.1%
BeefNoodleSoup
9/19/19 7:38am
repeating of course
Twin Roots
9/19/19 9:03am
That's IF you agree with the spread. SP+ has 28.8%
molodyets
9/19/19 7:29am
Teamratings has 33.6%, FPI 34.9%, and Sagarin only 16%
jreid191
9/19/19 7:57am
Sagarins early ratings weight prior years. S&P is the same. I would expect the
jkccoug
9/19/19 12:33pm
Every system uses prior years data because it improves accuracy.
molodyets
9/19/19 1:08pm
Early on that’s certainly true
jkccoug
9/19/19 2:03pm
Not bad
Blueto
9/19/19 7:30am
Since 1997, underdogs of 4-7 pts have won outright 35% of the time
BlueFrog
9/19/19 7:35am
Wonder how many of that 35% were the home dog
volleyjiver
9/19/19 7:45am
not at a place to get that info. but.... Since 1997 BYU was won 6 of 11 games as a Home dog of 4-7 pts
BlueFrog
9/19/19 7:54am
Point spread already accounts for Home/Road
BeefNoodleSoup
9/19/19 7:56am
Wrong. Probability is 50%. We either beat them or we don’t 😉.
MC Coug Blue
9/19/19 7:43am
There's a possibility of a no-contest if the game is impacted by weather!
ryebrye
9/19/19 7:47am
With those odds you should play the lottery more often
astroman
9/19/19 8:49am
I like these odds compared to what I think will happen
SouthernBlueBlood
9/19/19 7:45am
For Python Users:
BeefNoodleSoup
9/19/19 7:48am
It is roughly the same as rolling 6 dice and not rolling a single "6"
ryebrye
9/19/19 7:53am
You're not coming with me to Vegas.
BeefNoodleSoup
9/19/19 8:42am
Is that based on a normal distribution? Where do you get the statistics?
The Dark Knight
9/19/19 7:57am
Yes, it's normal.
BeefNoodleSoup
9/19/19 8:00am
Thanks!
The Dark Knight
9/19/19 8:05am
Sean Connery said it better as a Scot-accented Russian:
d-coug
9/19/19 8:27am
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