To recalculate using NCAA data for my prior, I get 34.1%

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Sep 19, 2019
7:38:15am

BeefNoodleSoup All-American

> pnorm(0,mean=6.5,sd=15.82)
[1] 0.3405831

Note: I didn't account for the fact that football scores are discrete.

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BeefNoodleSoup

Previous username: ChinoCoug
New username: Genghis Spreads
Bio page: BeefNoodleSoup
Joined: Feb 23, 2004
Last login: Oct 25, 2019
Total posts: 0 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Probability of beating UW is 32.0%

BeefNoodleSoup

9/19/19 7:19am

Where did you get the standard deviation?

a priori

9/19/19 7:21am

That's for the NFL, based on Winston's Mathletics. I think the number for

BeefNoodleSoup

9/19/19 7:24am

Actually, the standard deviation for NCAA is 15.82.

BeefNoodleSoup

9/19/19 7:36am

That gets to 34.1%

Big Tuna

9/19/19 8:05am

yup

BeefNoodleSoup

9/19/19 8:06am

ESPN’s FPI says 34.9%, so very close.

chilango

9/19/19 7:23am

To recalculate using NCAA data for my prior, I get 34.1%

BeefNoodleSoup

9/19/19 7:38am

repeating of course

Twin Roots

9/19/19 9:03am

That's IF you agree with the spread. SP+ has 28.8%

molodyets

9/19/19 7:29am

Teamratings has 33.6%, FPI 34.9%, and Sagarin only 16%

jreid191

9/19/19 7:57am

Sagarins early ratings weight prior years. S&P is the same. I would expect the

jkccoug

9/19/19 12:33pm

Every system uses prior years data because it improves accuracy.

molodyets

9/19/19 1:08pm

Early on that’s certainly true

jkccoug

9/19/19 2:03pm

Not bad

Blueto

9/19/19 7:30am

Since 1997, underdogs of 4-7 pts have won outright 35% of the time

BlueFrog

9/19/19 7:35am

Wonder how many of that 35% were the home dog

volleyjiver

9/19/19 7:45am

not at a place to get that info. but.... Since 1997 BYU was won 6 of 11 games as a Home dog of 4-7 pts

BlueFrog

9/19/19 7:54am

Point spread already accounts for Home/Road

BeefNoodleSoup

9/19/19 7:56am

Wrong. Probability is 50%. We either beat them or we don’t 😉.

MC Coug Blue

9/19/19 7:43am

There's a possibility of a no-contest if the game is impacted by weather!

ryebrye

9/19/19 7:47am

With those odds you should play the lottery more often

astroman

9/19/19 8:49am

I like these odds compared to what I think will happen

SouthernBlueBlood

9/19/19 7:45am

For Python Users:

BeefNoodleSoup

9/19/19 7:48am

It is roughly the same as rolling 6 dice and not rolling a single "6"

ryebrye

9/19/19 7:53am

You're not coming with me to Vegas.

BeefNoodleSoup

9/19/19 8:42am

Is that based on a normal distribution? Where do you get the statistics?

The Dark Knight

9/19/19 7:57am

Yes, it's normal.

BeefNoodleSoup

9/19/19 8:00am

Thanks!

The Dark Knight

9/19/19 8:05am

Sean Connery said it better as a Scot-accented Russian:

d-coug

9/19/19 8:27am

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