Just look at how many teams have had weird losses. The top 10 have been shuffled more than any early season I remember.
The reality is this year is no different than any other. BYU gets a possible at large bid somewhere north of 24 wins. The way other teams play will vet out how far north that has to be. To get 24+, BYU can lose 3-4 conference games (pending number of wins in conf tourney). No different than any other year.