unfortunately we're currently running at the high end of these projections

Mar 29, 2020
6:09:57am

The Shazad Truly Addicted User

at least over the 4 days they've predicted. The last two days have been above even the edges of the confidence bound. Hopefully those are just statistical blips.

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The Shazad

Previous username: the_shazad
Bio page: The Shazad
Joined: Sep 11, 2007
Last login: Apr 29, 2023
Total posts: 25,814 (49 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

This website from the University of Washington provides COVID projections for

Game Changer

3/29/20 2:46am

For Utah: 619 deaths projected by August, and a shortage of 121 ICU beds.

Game Changer

3/29/20 2:49am

So even if this ends up as the actual outcome we are talking 30% more than

Dixie's Red Rocks

3/29/20 5:39am

Not have we ever allowed the flu to shutdown the economy.

Soy Celeste

3/29/20 6:07am

Yes. That as well. Just didn't want to be long winded.

Dixie's Red Rocks

3/29/20 6:10am

30% more deaths in 1 month than the flu for 12 months with the restrictions....

Doc Buff

3/29/20 10:55am

because this result is only achieved through extreme preventative measures

The Shazad

3/29/20 6:13am

And 50 k flu dearhs happen, WITH TAMIFLU and WITH VACCINES!

CarolinaCoug

3/29/20 9:13am

Yes, because of shelter-in-place orders and social distancing. Without these

chilango

3/29/20 6:45am

Yes, but had we taken no effort it would have been 3000%

flyzag

3/29/20 6:48am

It's *because* we're doing those things that the projections come down.

ReyOso

3/29/20 7:06am

Well - I just haven’t heard of hospitals being overwhelmed with flu cases

Cswilliam01

3/29/20 7:26am

We are only getting flu like death numbers bc of isolation measures. If we

Alsippi89

3/29/20 7:42am

Because of social distancing efforts.

jkccoug

3/29/20 9:24am

unfortunately we're currently running at the high end of these projections

The Shazad

3/29/20 6:09am

Potential caveats

bythenumbers

3/29/20 6:44am

Interesting find - that guy definitely has a lot to say. I'm sure we will find

Game Changer

3/29/20 12:35pm

It's already wrong on Colorado by saying there is no shelter in place order.

Mister P

3/29/20 6:45am

Same with Idaho

RexIdaCoug

3/29/20 6:53am

Is it statewide or specific areas?

buffgato

3/29/20 7:20am

So the peak of the curve is projected to be just before mid April. A few weeks

JmThms

3/29/20 7:01am

Crazy how few beds per capita New York has comparatively

oilman

3/29/20 7:06am

One of the reasons we shut down elective OR cases is because

Boring

3/29/20 8:40am

RE: One of the reasons we shut down elective OR cases is because

Oatmeal

3/29/20 11:04am

and I'm not even an expert!

kiyoshige

3/29/20 8:53am

I think this model is accurate if the measures implemented are followed.

Zoobieman

3/29/20 12:44pm

300,000 dead in the U.S. *WITH* the current intervention - really?

Game Changer

3/29/20 12:57pm

Honestly, I don't know. If I lower my Critical case mortality rate by 50%. . .

Zoobieman

3/29/20 1:09pm

That might be it then. Hopefully you are the wrong one! 😉

Game Changer

3/29/20 1:37pm

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