Sadly we are not following the given guidelines and you can see we are already doing worse than the worst predicted model from Washington just 1 week out.

I stated that I thought it would be about 300K total dead in America with the current government intervention, Dr Fauci is saying 100 - 200K, so I will trust him over the Imperial or NMBC models. (And of course trust his number over my own model)

As For Italy, I feel for them, right now I think they are looking at 120K dead. (I made a chart with the SEIR model calculation)


Without intervention or lockdown (Ro increased from 1.2 to 2.4):



P.S. I would love to be wrong and Italy only has 20K total dead.
USA, different geography and some placed (Like Wyoming) have been social distancing for over a decade, I could print a graph but I really have no idea what is right. If anyone is interested. I will make a chart for Spain.