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Mar 29, 2020
7:01
:37
am
JmThms
Truly Addicted User
So the peak of the curve is projected to be just before mid April. A few weeks
from now.
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JmThms
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JmThms
Joined
Jul 4, 2012
Last login
Dec 19, 2020
Total posts
13,784 (11 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
This website from the University of Washington provides COVID projections for
Game Changer
3/29/20 2:46am
For Utah: 619 deaths projected by August, and a shortage of 121 ICU beds.
Game Changer
3/29/20 2:49am
So even if this ends up as the actual outcome we are talking 30% more than
Dixie's Red Rocks
3/29/20 5:39am
Not have we ever allowed the flu to shutdown the economy.
Soy Celeste
3/29/20 6:07am
Yes. That as well. Just didn't want to be long winded.
Dixie's Red Rocks
3/29/20 6:10am
30% more deaths in 1 month than the flu for 12 months with the restrictions....
Doc Buff
3/29/20 10:55am
because this result is only achieved through extreme preventative measures
The Shazad
3/29/20 6:13am
And 50 k flu dearhs happen, WITH TAMIFLU and WITH VACCINES!
CarolinaCoug
3/29/20 9:13am
Yes, because of shelter-in-place orders and social distancing. Without these
chilango
3/29/20 6:45am
Yes, but had we taken no effort it would have been 3000%
flyzag
3/29/20 6:48am
It's *because* we're doing those things that the projections come down.
ReyOso
3/29/20 7:06am
Well - I just haven’t heard of hospitals being overwhelmed with flu cases
Cswilliam01
3/29/20 7:26am
We are only getting flu like death numbers bc of isolation measures. If we
Alsippi89
3/29/20 7:42am
Because of social distancing efforts.
jkccoug
3/29/20 9:24am
unfortunately we're currently running at the high end of these projections
The Shazad
3/29/20 6:09am
Potential caveats
bythenumbers
3/29/20 6:44am
Interesting find - that guy definitely has a lot to say. I'm sure we will find
Game Changer
3/29/20 12:35pm
It's already wrong on Colorado by saying there is no shelter in place order.
Mister P
3/29/20 6:45am
Same with Idaho
RexIdaCoug
3/29/20 6:53am
Is it statewide or specific areas?
buffgato
3/29/20 7:20am
So the peak of the curve is projected to be just before mid April. A few weeks
JmThms
3/29/20 7:01am
Crazy how few beds per capita New York has comparatively
oilman
3/29/20 7:06am
One of the reasons we shut down elective OR cases is because
Boring
3/29/20 8:40am
RE: One of the reasons we shut down elective OR cases is because
Oatmeal
3/29/20 11:04am
and I'm not even an expert!
kiyoshige
3/29/20 8:53am
I think this model is accurate if the measures implemented are followed.
Zoobieman
3/29/20 12:44pm
300,000 dead in the U.S. *WITH* the current intervention - really?
Game Changer
3/29/20 12:57pm
Honestly, I don't know. If I lower my Critical case mortality rate by 50%. . .
Zoobieman
3/29/20 1:09pm
That might be it then. Hopefully you are the wrong one! 😉
Game Changer
3/29/20 1:37pm
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