R0 of 1.3 won't grow exponentially when you factor in the recovery rate.

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Mar 31, 2020
12:22:44pm

Taysom 4 Heisman Truly Addicted User

That's why the flu doesn't spread exponentially.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Mar 31, 2020 at 12:22:44pm

Message modified by Taysom 4 Heisman on Mar 31, 2020 at 12:23:18pm

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Taysom 4 Heisman

Previous username: VertDeFurk
New username: Vert der Frick
Bio page: Taysom 4 Heisman
Joined: Dec 5, 2010
Last login: Dec 27, 2021
Total posts: 0 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

2018 flu season: 900,000 hospitalizations. 80,000 deaths.

Harbinger

3/30/20 10:02pm

The difference is we have antibodies for the flu.

VACOUGFAN

3/30/20 10:05pm

I am not on any side here, but honestly curious. If we have antibodies for the flu, why do 80,000 still die?

RoaroftheCougartails

3/30/20 10:15pm

And millions extremely sick.

777

3/30/20 10:20pm

Anti-vaxxers, for one.

BYUBandfan

3/30/20 10:42pm

Because apparently those lives aren't worth saving.

Kerbouchard

3/30/20 11:06pm

That is some really poor reasoning. I guess it is par for the course.

kimdaddy35

3/30/20 11:42pm

They don't take the flu serious, and wash their hands enough and...

So it goes...

3/31/20 12:29am

Real answer- the flu shot covers what the believe will be the most prevalent

SouthernBlueBlood

3/31/20 4:33am

I thought all lives were of equal value? Apparently not. People are fine with

Kerbouchard

3/30/20 11:05pm

Yes, a death is a death. But 100 deaths is not 1 death. Every single person with

Scratch

3/30/20 11:19pm

Drastic measures for how long? Where? By what criteria?

Kerbouchard

3/30/20 11:26pm

I’m not saying all of the measures are necessary, and I believe some are

Scratch

3/30/20 11:39pm

The flu varies each year which is why a flu shot is developed and administered.

PortlandBlue

3/31/20 3:35am

So that makes 900k hospitalizations easy enough for the system to handle?

Harbinger

3/31/20 6:41am

Do those 900k hospitalizations all require ventilators?

VACOUGFAN

3/31/20 7:01am

We haven't and won't have 900k hospitalizations in 6 weeks and not even

Harbinger

3/31/20 8:41am

These posts are getting old.

kimdaddy35

3/30/20 10:05pm

So is the shutdown.

Superman21

3/30/20 10:18pm

Facts are pesky things.

Samsonite

3/30/20 10:25pm

RE: Facts are pesky things.

coolcats

3/31/20 6:23am

Not at all. Politicians trying to one up each other, making policies that

Kerbouchard

3/30/20 11:08pm

Not based on data?

Scratch

3/30/20 11:19pm

wow. Makes me rethink my views since this hasn't been said 1,000 times this month

Clark Addison

3/30/20 10:06pm

Wow.

Blueto

3/30/20 10:07pm

Define "on pace" as it applies to current conditions.

Plato

3/30/20 10:10pm

We won't even get to 50,000 deaths.

Scott_Tenorman

3/30/20 10:40pm

I hope not. Are you rooting for more deaths to be "proven" right/wrong though?

VACOUGFAN

3/31/20 6:06am

Maybe, but the curve goes up and then comes down so daily deaths will begin

dazcoug

3/30/20 11:41pm

Try and understand exponential growth.

Taysom 4 Heisman

3/30/20 10:20pm

If it’s that simple then why don’t more people have the virus now?

Odysseus

3/30/20 10:41pm

Flu season started late October/early November.

cougfanblue

3/30/20 10:54pm

Sure. The flu isn’t a great comparison. But at 60+ days of “exponential growth”

Odysseus

3/31/20 6:07am

Number of new cases per day doubles about every 7 days.

cougfanblue

3/31/20 8:36am

My point is I’d like to see more nuance when it comes to platitudes like

Odysseus

3/31/20 10:16am

Well first case that they know of...

VACOUGFAN

3/31/20 6:07am

Is it like when I contribute $100 on my first paycheck and then

Superman21

3/30/20 11:01pm

Exponential growth is not present in your example

BYU_Hoops

3/31/20 2:56am

The flu grows exponentially too.

RugbyCoug

3/30/20 11:04pm

Not really.

Taysom 4 Heisman

3/31/20 9:29am

both are exponential. 1.00001 is exponential. But actually, more importantly,

RugbyCoug

3/31/20 11:26am

R0 of 1.3 won't grow exponentially when you factor in the recovery rate.

Taysom 4 Heisman

3/31/20 12:22pm

And surrender all constitutional freedom of movement in the meantime.

Kerbouchard

3/30/20 11:09pm

And from the CDC data, estimated 2803 died between ages 18-49 yrs

Run-DMT

3/30/20 10:39pm

T h i s i is n o t t h e f l u

So it goes...

3/30/20 10:59pm

So? Death is death. A life is a life.

Kerbouchard

3/30/20 11:10pm

When in your lifetime has the flu done what we've seen these past 3 months?

So it goes...

3/30/20 11:53pm

The past 3 months it has..actually. you get those are USA flu #'s not worldwid

CarolinaCoug

3/31/20 1:18am

Erase out of your brain the false information Fox was feeding you for over a...

So it goes...

3/31/20 12:02am

Heard it first on CNN from the NYC Mayor and Health Director. ALL media suck and have their agendas and bias!

Rhino84

3/31/20 7:00am

Nah ... you heard some conservative media

coolcats

3/31/20 7:27am

Nope. Saw it on CNN which I watch at lunchtime when they first said it several weeks ago.

Rhino84

3/31/20 10:51am

And CNN and NYT and Washington Post ...

CougarMandias

3/31/20 8:22am

Yes, it sounds like you do in fact need an intervention.

TheWoodman

3/31/20 9:57am

He's not saying it's the flu, he's saying the flu is worse.

ochobeeguy

3/30/20 11:55pm

900,000 hospitalizations. I don't care what sickness it is. How come the medical

Harbinger

3/31/20 6:39am

Why are you willfully being ignorant? Is it for attention?

BYU_Hoops

3/31/20 10:06am

So no answer? Just a personal attack. Surprising.

Harbinger

3/31/20 12:06pm

It’s not a personal attack. You’re making light of a serious issue and choosing

BYU_Hoops

3/31/20 12:30pm

Influenza has been a way of life for 100 years.

DrJazzy

3/31/20 10:10am

I guess that's one way to miss the point. How did you handle 900k

Harbinger

3/31/20 12:05pm

Wait. You really don’t get this?! Did all 900K (or whatever made up number

BYU_Hoops

3/31/20 12:31pm

900k won't happen in a month with covid. Nor do all cases require an icu.

Harbinger

3/31/20 12:40pm

Since you’re obviously a highly trained infectious disease doctor please get

BYU_Hoops

3/31/20 12:53pm

Yup we’re all crazy. NY hospitals, MI, hospitals, Louisiana hospitals

DrJazzy

3/31/20 3:37pm

Just curious, why don't you move patients to hospitals that aren't overcrowded?

Harbinger

3/31/20 7:53pm

To answer your question...

DrJazzy

3/31/20 11:30pm

Sorry to clarify one point...

DrJazzy

3/31/20 11:40pm

Hospitals are meant to operate at or near capacity any point and time.

DrJazzy

3/31/20 3:38pm

So everyone else needs to become unemployed so you don't have to prepare to do

Harbinger

3/31/20 7:49pm

Nope - it’s definitely a balancing act.

DrJazzy

3/31/20 11:37pm

Those numbers were spread out over a season and didn’t lead to entire healthcare

DrJazzy

3/30/20 11:02pm

Great, that doesn't mean it's a choice between shutting everything down or do

Kerbouchard

3/30/20 11:11pm

The flu had Mitt Romney's PR Manager

kiyoshige

3/31/20 12:00am

Really interesting. Why has no one made this comparison before?

DomCasual

3/31/20 12:02am

How many times does it need repeating? Imaging taking that flu season but

Resurgens

3/31/20 12:34am

Yes, I do!

AzCugrFan

3/31/20 12:55am

You're mistaken sadly

Resurgens

3/31/20 8:44am

Well, THAT changed my mind!!

AzCugrFan

3/31/20 12:08pm

What do you need? There's a couple explanations out there

Resurgens

3/31/20 12:12pm

but your original question was if I thought our hospitals could deal with the

AzCugrFan

3/31/20 1:23pm

Wondering how you came to that conclusion?

Resurgens

3/31/20 3:28pm

Cdc 2018 flu season was 13 weeks long. 61000 deaths in 13 weeks,,900,000

CarolinaCoug

3/31/20 9:09pm

Couple thoughts

Resurgens

4/1/20 11:08am

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