If the pattern holds from the rest of the world, it will spread much, much more slowly in less densely populated areas

Mar 31, 2020
6:56:57pm

YIsForBrigham Poo Poo

We may still see lots of infections and deaths but it’s possible it won’t spike at the same rate. And if the infection rate slows, it’s possible deaths fall as herd immunity begins to stifle total infections overall.

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YIsForBrigham

Previous username: TrueAndBlue
Bio page: YIsForBrigham
Joined: Aug 9, 2012
Last login: May 5, 2024
Total posts: 65,416 (17,767 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Taskforce expects US to peak at approx 2,200 deaths per day in 14 days, which is

Plato

3/31/20 5:58pm

3,000/day and 110,000 total deaths

RdF3

3/31/20 6:03pm

I'm going with 2,000 and 47,000 total deaths

Plato

3/31/20 6:07pm

Yep, I think under 50k

CSoul

3/31/20 6:13pm

They are just going off the University of Washington study

CSoul

3/31/20 6:04pm

I think it will take longer than that to hit the peak and the deaths per day

ayfan

3/31/20 6:05pm

But New York could begin to fall which is by far the largest driver. It skews all the numbers

YIsForBrigham

3/31/20 6:12pm

We just don't know for sure if its timing and several others will start to jump

Plato

3/31/20 6:15pm

New York is only 6% of the US population. Even if the rest of the country

ayfan

3/31/20 6:23pm

New cases is heavily influenced by number of tests. As long as we’re increasing testing, expect cases to follow

Mike Honcho

3/31/20 6:49pm

I don't know about New York specifically. But nationally testing number are down

ayfan

3/31/20 6:59pm

If the pattern holds from the rest of the world, it will spread much, much more slowly in less densely populated areas

YIsForBrigham

3/31/20 6:56pm

Austin area is just starting to get hit. Overwhelmingly younger people

rtNelson

3/31/20 6:18pm

Less than 2,000 per day and less than 40,000 this year (God willing)

Odysseus

3/31/20 6:57pm

I think we'll end up with around 50K deaths this year, meaning before Sept.

runnincoug

3/31/20 9:31pm

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