I don't know about New York specifically. But nationally testing number are down

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Mar 31, 2020
6:59:14pm

ayfan All-American

I don't know about New York specifically. But nationally testing number are down

Not a very encouraging data on the data front.

* Number of tests in the US has stagnated.
* 807 deaths recorded today vs. 511 yesterday.
* The rate of increase in detected new cases has slowed (partly because the number of tests has flattened), but they're still increasing. https://t.co/G7fcfXlBuQ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 31, 2020

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1245105474359513090

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ayfan

Bio page: ayfan
Joined: Jan 1, 2007
Last login: Nov 14, 2021
Total posts: 7,139 (5 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Taskforce expects US to peak at approx 2,200 deaths per day in 14 days, which is

Plato

3/31/20 5:58pm

3,000/day and 110,000 total deaths

RdF3

3/31/20 6:03pm

I'm going with 2,000 and 47,000 total deaths

Plato

3/31/20 6:07pm

Yep, I think under 50k

CSoul

3/31/20 6:13pm

They are just going off the University of Washington study

CSoul

3/31/20 6:04pm

I think it will take longer than that to hit the peak and the deaths per day

ayfan

3/31/20 6:05pm

But New York could begin to fall which is by far the largest driver. It skews all the numbers

3/31/20 6:12pm

We just don't know for sure if its timing and several others will start to jump

Plato

3/31/20 6:15pm

New York is only 6% of the US population. Even if the rest of the country

ayfan

3/31/20 6:23pm

New cases is heavily influenced by number of tests. As long as we’re increasing testing, expect cases to follow

Mike Honcho

3/31/20 6:49pm

I don't know about New York specifically. But nationally testing number are down

ayfan

3/31/20 6:59pm

If the pattern holds from the rest of the world, it will spread much, much more slowly in less densely populated areas

3/31/20 6:56pm

Austin area is just starting to get hit. Overwhelmingly younger people

rtNelson

3/31/20 6:18pm

Less than 2,000 per day and less than 40,000 this year (God willing)

Odysseus

3/31/20 6:57pm

I think we'll end up with around 50K deaths this year, meaning before Sept.

runnincoug

3/31/20 9:31pm

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