"All models are wrong. Some models are useful."

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Apr 3, 2020
11:04:31pm

dilbert Truly Addicted User

"All models are wrong. Some models are useful." — George Box

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dilbert

Bio page: dilbert
Joined: Oct 4, 2004
Last login: Apr 30, 2024
Total posts: 35,905 (16,529 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

On Monday afternoon there were 4006 National deaths. The doom and gloom bunch

travelcoug

4/3/20 10:51pm

Pretty much every model is wrong.

Brisco

4/3/20 11:00pm

Actually the same modeling theories are used for the weather and

travelcoug

4/3/20 11:03pm

I now know of three people who have died from Covid-19

Aircooled

4/3/20 11:19pm

That's nuts and goes against all the statistics. One city? Not one underlying

777

4/3/20 11:28pm

Here they are

Aircooled

4/3/20 11:41pm

Sorry to hear that. That's crazy.

777

4/3/20 11:45pm

So this information comes from three facilities violating HIPAA

BYU '80

4/4/20 12:13am

America "must" know age and if any underlying conditions were present. "Must!"

BleedCougarBlue2

4/4/20 1:01am

Boom

Misteak

4/4/20 5:59am

Aircooled

4/4/20 8:58am

I don't get it.

HONOMO

4/4/20 10:58am

He said he didn’t know the people well.

BYU '80

4/4/20 8:39pm

This could be but Worldometer is still reporting zero deaths in Wyoming.

Chemish

4/4/20 3:41am

Wow. Yeah, I think those who haven’t been affected are underplaying it

zerome4sooners

4/4/20 6:48am

It is horrible when it is close to you and I pray for you and their families.

travelcoug

4/3/20 11:32pm

Don’t know them personally. Sorry for the misdirection

Aircooled

4/3/20 11:42pm

Not to make light but therefore you have no idea if there were underlying

BYU '80

4/4/20 12:15am

So you heard about 3 anecdotal outliers and that may have had pre-existing

Misteak

4/4/20 6:01am

No kidding. The post is turned on it's head.

Jacksonian76

4/4/20 8:01am

Anecdotal COVID reports = “anonymous sources”

cougarnw

4/4/20 8:11am

Climate models are right on track:

Defenestrator

4/3/20 11:42pm

That's because climatologists pick and choose and fabricate their own data

DeekLyfter

4/3/20 11:53pm

If you wish to allege fraud, you are welcome to present evidence for it.

Defenestrator

4/3/20 11:55pm

You'd only explain away at it until you've convinced yourself not to believe it

DeekLyfter

4/4/20 12:01am

Or independently verify it myself. Oh wait, I've already done that:

Defenestrator

4/4/20 12:07am

Interesting

DeekLyfter

4/4/20 12:20am

Ask yourself, why don't they show a direct comparison plot of raw vs adjusted

Defenestrator

4/4/20 10:08am

The Obama epa said that if all eu and us were to go carbon free

travelcoug

4/4/20 12:16am

By the way. We want clean air and clean water so that’s not an issue

travelcoug

4/4/20 12:20am

A lot of unsourced claims and factually incorrect statements.

Defenestrator

4/4/20 10:21am

We already know NASA fabricated their models.

coolblue

4/4/20 6:54am

Not at all, and if you want to allege fraud you need to provide evidence.

Defenestrator

4/4/20 10:10am

"All models are wrong. Some models are useful." — George Box

dilbert

4/3/20 11:04pm

In seasons of rapidly changing weather, meteorological forecasts are pretty good for about two days out.

Brisco

4/3/20 11:10pm

You called it a goal? That’s really weird. It’s pretty clear the

The Dude Abides

4/3/20 11:01pm

Posters acting like people are actually disappointed that fewer people are dying than expected.

shimmy

4/3/20 11:04pm

People have to turn everything into a pissing contest these days. Pick a side and fight all the enemies - whether or not

foofcoug

4/3/20 11:10pm

You're not a fan of the same religion/location/political viewpoint/sports team as me so I will never agree with you.

shimmy

4/3/20 11:18pm

To be honest, the stakes are really high. We need to be right on this.

SnickSnack

4/4/20 12:07am

Let’s not take people to task for the use of a word. There’s too much of that on cb.

Brisco

4/3/20 11:17pm

I think it is pretty clear that word was chosen intentionally based on viewpoint. However, I agree that the viewpoint

shimmy

4/3/20 11:21pm

travelcoug has insinuated that too many times to consider this unintentional

Psalm Trees

4/3/20 11:24pm

LOL. I don't even follow my own posts that closely.

Brisco

4/4/20 12:12am

That is great news. Was the doubling every 2 days model based on ouotcomes with or without the social distancing?

shimmy

4/3/20 11:03pm

Without. (And it was 3 days IIRC)

All-American

4/3/20 11:04pm

So the social distancing efforts are resulting in significant slowing based upon travelcoug's numbers?

shimmy

4/3/20 11:06pm

That’s great! It’s working!

All-American

4/3/20 11:05pm

Hmmmm

Blueto

4/3/20 11:09pm

Freezing cold take right there

JoeExotic

4/3/20 11:14pm

Nice job on the board name change

Josef K

4/3/20 11:24pm

So he was saying what most were saying that don’t employ revisionist history

BYU '80

4/4/20 12:18am

Most weren't saying anything

JoeExotic

4/4/20 1:09am

Most? Where, on Fox News?

chilango

4/4/20 2:14am

FWIW they were talking about deaths/day, not total deaths

BYUCLA

4/3/20 11:13pm

This is true although it does look to be slowing finally

johnnybyu

4/4/20 12:25am

Number of deaths per day, and it DID double till today

jkccoug

4/3/20 11:55pm

It doubled in 2 days on 3/24 then to 3-4 days after that and then 4 days after

johnnybyu

4/4/20 12:28am

Agreed.

jkccoug

4/4/20 12:31am

The measures are working and travelcoug is disappointed. He wanted more deaths

Archaea

4/4/20 7:12am

Calling people’s predictions and projections ‘a goal’ is cheap, bush league BS.

Ikuna

4/4/20 12:28am

Let me get this straight - mofoihglkngteuhnwgoihtnoivovpovpuhvh?

ClackamasCoug

4/4/20 2:42am

Great news. Our measures seem to be working.

ReyOso

4/4/20 7:41am

The model takes into account current measures.

Bostonblue

4/4/20 7:42am

Terrific. It's working even better than we'd hoped.

ReyOso

4/4/20 7:58am

This argument

Toubibe

4/4/20 10:28am

I think you mean if we beat it, some will say there wasn't a battle to fight.

ReyOso

4/4/20 10:44am

If we beat it?

Toubibe

4/4/20 11:09am

Means the models are wrong no matter how you cut it.

Bostonblue

4/4/20 11:17am

If measures work, the complainers will state, "see we're okay." If they don't

Archaea

4/4/20 7:45am

Very true

Covid-19

4/4/20 8:31am

Also easy to be a doomsayer. No matter what happens they’ll say, “It would have

gwalker

4/4/20 8:56am

You believe statistical epidemiologists are

Archaea

4/4/20 9:09am

I think they're doing their jobs to the best of their ability. It’s their

gwalker

4/4/20 9:33am

Incomplete info makes for rough estimates

Archaea

4/4/20 10:00am

I’m afraid we already have plenty of examples of what happens without distancing

Josef K

4/4/20 10:32am

Uncertainty is for real. Some areas peak sooner. Hot spots growing elsewhere.

Celeritas

4/4/20 9:09am

Do you realize your dismissiveness is dangerous?

superdoo

4/4/20 11:14am

It is easy to make models that fit history, but the model is only useful

Jacksonian76

4/4/20 1:04pm

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