It is easy to make models that fit history, but the model is only useful

Apr 4, 2020
1:04:48pm

Jacksonian76 3rd String

If out can predict the future. This doesn't mean the model is broken, just that we should keep or eye on it. It might be natural variance, or it might not accurately predict the future.

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Jacksonian76

Bio page: Jacksonian76
Joined: Oct 11, 2013
Last login: Apr 26, 2024
Total posts: 682 (3 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

On Monday afternoon there were 4006 National deaths. The doom and gloom bunch

travelcoug

4/3/20 10:51pm

Pretty much every model is wrong.

Brisco

4/3/20 11:00pm

Actually the same modeling theories are used for the weather and

travelcoug

4/3/20 11:03pm

I now know of three people who have died from Covid-19

Aircooled

4/3/20 11:19pm

That's nuts and goes against all the statistics. One city? Not one underlying

777

4/3/20 11:28pm

Here they are

Aircooled

4/3/20 11:41pm

Sorry to hear that. That's crazy.

777

4/3/20 11:45pm

So this information comes from three facilities violating HIPAA

BYU '80

4/4/20 12:13am

America "must" know age and if any underlying conditions were present. "Must!"

BleedCougarBlue2

4/4/20 1:01am

Boom

Misteak

4/4/20 5:59am

Aircooled

4/4/20 8:58am

I don't get it.

HONOMO

4/4/20 10:58am

He said he didn’t know the people well.

BYU '80

4/4/20 8:39pm

This could be but Worldometer is still reporting zero deaths in Wyoming.

Chemish

4/4/20 3:41am

Wow. Yeah, I think those who haven’t been affected are underplaying it

zerome4sooners

4/4/20 6:48am

It is horrible when it is close to you and I pray for you and their families.

travelcoug

4/3/20 11:32pm

Don’t know them personally. Sorry for the misdirection

Aircooled

4/3/20 11:42pm

Not to make light but therefore you have no idea if there were underlying

BYU '80

4/4/20 12:15am

So you heard about 3 anecdotal outliers and that may have had pre-existing

Misteak

4/4/20 6:01am

No kidding. The post is turned on it's head.

Jacksonian76

4/4/20 8:01am

Anecdotal COVID reports = “anonymous sources”

cougarnw

4/4/20 8:11am

Climate models are right on track:

Defenestrator

4/3/20 11:42pm

That's because climatologists pick and choose and fabricate their own data

DeekLyfter

4/3/20 11:53pm

If you wish to allege fraud, you are welcome to present evidence for it.

Defenestrator

4/3/20 11:55pm

You'd only explain away at it until you've convinced yourself not to believe it

DeekLyfter

4/4/20 12:01am

Or independently verify it myself. Oh wait, I've already done that:

Defenestrator

4/4/20 12:07am

Interesting

DeekLyfter

4/4/20 12:20am

Ask yourself, why don't they show a direct comparison plot of raw vs adjusted

Defenestrator

4/4/20 10:08am

The Obama epa said that if all eu and us were to go carbon free

travelcoug

4/4/20 12:16am

By the way. We want clean air and clean water so that’s not an issue

travelcoug

4/4/20 12:20am

A lot of unsourced claims and factually incorrect statements.

Defenestrator

4/4/20 10:21am

We already know NASA fabricated their models.

coolblue

4/4/20 6:54am

Not at all, and if you want to allege fraud you need to provide evidence.

Defenestrator

4/4/20 10:10am

"All models are wrong. Some models are useful." — George Box

dilbert

4/3/20 11:04pm

In seasons of rapidly changing weather, meteorological forecasts are pretty good for about two days out.

Brisco

4/3/20 11:10pm

You called it a goal? That’s really weird. It’s pretty clear the

The Dude Abides

4/3/20 11:01pm

Posters acting like people are actually disappointed that fewer people are dying than expected.

shimmy

4/3/20 11:04pm

People have to turn everything into a pissing contest these days. Pick a side and fight all the enemies - whether or not

foofcoug

4/3/20 11:10pm

You're not a fan of the same religion/location/political viewpoint/sports team as me so I will never agree with you.

shimmy

4/3/20 11:18pm

To be honest, the stakes are really high. We need to be right on this.

SnickSnack

4/4/20 12:07am

Let’s not take people to task for the use of a word. There’s too much of that on cb.

Brisco

4/3/20 11:17pm

I think it is pretty clear that word was chosen intentionally based on viewpoint. However, I agree that the viewpoint

shimmy

4/3/20 11:21pm

travelcoug has insinuated that too many times to consider this unintentional

Psalm Trees

4/3/20 11:24pm

LOL. I don't even follow my own posts that closely.

Brisco

4/4/20 12:12am

That is great news. Was the doubling every 2 days model based on ouotcomes with or without the social distancing?

shimmy

4/3/20 11:03pm

Without. (And it was 3 days IIRC)

All-American

4/3/20 11:04pm

So the social distancing efforts are resulting in significant slowing based upon travelcoug's numbers?

shimmy

4/3/20 11:06pm

That’s great! It’s working!

All-American

4/3/20 11:05pm

Hmmmm

Blueto

4/3/20 11:09pm

Freezing cold take right there

JoeExotic

4/3/20 11:14pm

Nice job on the board name change

Josef K

4/3/20 11:24pm

So he was saying what most were saying that don’t employ revisionist history

BYU '80

4/4/20 12:18am

Most weren't saying anything

JoeExotic

4/4/20 1:09am

Most? Where, on Fox News?

chilango

4/4/20 2:14am

FWIW they were talking about deaths/day, not total deaths

BYUCLA

4/3/20 11:13pm

This is true although it does look to be slowing finally

johnnybyu

4/4/20 12:25am

Number of deaths per day, and it DID double till today

jkccoug

4/3/20 11:55pm

It doubled in 2 days on 3/24 then to 3-4 days after that and then 4 days after

johnnybyu

4/4/20 12:28am

Agreed.

jkccoug

4/4/20 12:31am

The measures are working and travelcoug is disappointed. He wanted more deaths

Archaea

4/4/20 7:12am

Calling people’s predictions and projections ‘a goal’ is cheap, bush league BS.

Ikuna

4/4/20 12:28am

Let me get this straight - mofoihglkngteuhnwgoihtnoivovpovpuhvh?

ClackamasCoug

4/4/20 2:42am

Great news. Our measures seem to be working.

ReyOso

4/4/20 7:41am

The model takes into account current measures.

Bostonblue

4/4/20 7:42am

Terrific. It's working even better than we'd hoped.

ReyOso

4/4/20 7:58am

This argument

Toubibe

4/4/20 10:28am

I think you mean if we beat it, some will say there wasn't a battle to fight.

ReyOso

4/4/20 10:44am

If we beat it?

Toubibe

4/4/20 11:09am

Means the models are wrong no matter how you cut it.

Bostonblue

4/4/20 11:17am

If measures work, the complainers will state, "see we're okay." If they don't

Archaea

4/4/20 7:45am

Very true

Covid-19

4/4/20 8:31am

Also easy to be a doomsayer. No matter what happens they’ll say, “It would have

gwalker

4/4/20 8:56am

You believe statistical epidemiologists are

Archaea

4/4/20 9:09am

I think they're doing their jobs to the best of their ability. It’s their

gwalker

4/4/20 9:33am

Incomplete info makes for rough estimates

Archaea

4/4/20 10:00am

I’m afraid we already have plenty of examples of what happens without distancing

Josef K

4/4/20 10:32am

Uncertainty is for real. Some areas peak sooner. Hot spots growing elsewhere.

Celeritas

4/4/20 9:09am

Do you realize your dismissiveness is dangerous?

superdoo

4/4/20 11:14am

It is easy to make models that fit history, but the model is only useful

Jacksonian76

4/4/20 1:04pm

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