Right now, if Italy’s trends continue as expected, about a half of a % of their

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Apr 4, 2020
6:15:08pm

Jay Rick All-American

Right now, if Italy’s trends continue as expected, about a half of a % of their

entire population will die of COVID.

So, tracking jjst deaths, and not worrying about how many undiagnosed cases there might be, you can still see that as a pretty significant number.

If that same % applies to the US, we’d be looking at, what, 1.6 million? Somewhere around that.

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Jay Rick

Previous username: jayriggity
Bio page: Jay Rick
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
Last login: Apr 26, 2024
Total posts: 28,093 (4,822 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Just some interesting information to consider, along with the scarier data.

YSMACK

4/4/20 1:35pm

Yes, my wife, the nurse, was noting the over 200 more cases since yesterday.

StarMan

4/4/20 1:41pm

Of note is that the 8% requiring hospitalization is just of those actually

RugbyCoug

4/4/20 1:45pm

I’ve noted it before, but I will again. Iceland says over 50% of their positive

Jay Rick

4/4/20 1:59pm

Sheesh. Vikings! 😉

Boanerges

4/4/20 2:05pm

Both good points.

YSMACK

4/4/20 2:14pm

It also likely means that many more people have it than we think/report

Big Papi

4/4/20 3:47pm

RE: It also likely means that many more people have it than we think/report

kbufcoug

4/4/20 4:26pm

Remember no one knows the false positive rate.

NotTokolosh

4/4/20 7:56pm

Or false negative rate. Or the future. Or undiagnosed infected.

YSMACK

4/4/20 10:22pm

Your fatality rate is way off

jgaxn

4/4/20 4:18pm

I mean the WHO did it

bythenumbers

4/4/20 4:26pm

No it isn't.

YSMACK

4/4/20 4:30pm

You're comparing apples and oranges.

jgaxn

4/4/20 9:08pm

LOL. You're the one cherry picking.

YSMACK

4/4/20 9:39pm

Your 100% accurate statement may not have intended to mislead...

jgaxn

4/5/20 2:10pm

Hey, looks like my 100% factual post is still right on the money.

YSMACK

10/26/20 1:43pm

Overstating the death percentage is also dangerous

bigjohn

4/4/20 4:41pm

See WHO 3.4 percent

bythenumbers

4/4/20 4:54pm

Not only was it not dangerous. It was right on and sitll is today (.54% now).

YSMACK

10/26/20 1:44pm

No one knows the denominator

bythenumbers

4/4/20 4:33pm

Actual is almost certainly much higher than confirmed, as you stated

YSMACK

4/4/20 4:36pm

No criticism here, just a comment

bythenumbers

4/4/20 4:38pm

And a good, appreciated, comment.

YSMACK

4/4/20 4:39pm

That italian town with 2/3 having asymptotic disease...

Jonahsdad

4/4/20 4:56pm

Fair. My death rate is just Utah. I used it since I (and most here) live in Utah

YSMACK

4/4/20 5:03pm

Right now, if Italy’s trends continue as expected, about a half of a % of their

Jay Rick

4/4/20 6:15pm

Where in the world do you get this number?

bythenumbers

4/4/20 6:48pm

Actually, you’re right. Their projection isn’t 300K. So I’m off. Apologies.

Jay Rick

4/4/20 6:53pm

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