I absolutely agree with the value of a pop survey. But, with 50 percent false

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Apr 5, 2020
8:56:26pm

doctorcoug All-American

I absolutely agree with the value of a pop survey. But, with 50 percent false

Positive rate (assuming a disease prevalence of 5 percent--which is very generous), then this doesn't help even from a population health standpoint. Flip the coin and I'll tell you if you are positive or not.

I just found this for you. Helps explain what I'm obviously not explaining well.

The FDA has approved the first antibody test for COVID-19, from Cellex. It theoretically tells you if you've had it & are, as far as we know, immune for some time.

Sensitivity is 93.8%, specificity 95.6%. Sounds great, right?

Well, sort of. (1/6)
— Zachary Binney, PhD (@zbinney_NFLinj) April 2, 2020

https://twitter.com/zbinney_NFLinj/status/1245789672833417217

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doctorcoug

Previous username: 1viking1
New username: Uno Doctoro
Bio page: doctorcoug
Joined: Aug 11, 2007
Last login: Oct 6, 2023
Total posts: 0 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

This could be a game changer. Serologic survey data is on the way!

Run-DMT

4/5/20 7:50pm

Serologic data without a confirmatory test is not going to end this

doctorcoug

4/5/20 7:54pm

Have you read the article?

Run-DMT

4/5/20 7:55pm

Sure did, but it didn't teach me anything I didn't already know. This virus is

doctorcoug

4/5/20 8:02pm

Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good

CallingDingo

4/5/20 8:14pm

If disease prevalence is 5 percent, a + test is 50% to be a false positive. That

doctorcoug

4/5/20 8:18pm

How about using IgG antibodies to Hep B to confirm immunity? Do you buy that?

Run-DMT

4/5/20 8:19pm

Sure do. The test parameters are significantly better. This is a really importan

doctorcoug

4/5/20 8:31pm

How do you know it’s that bad?

CallingDingo

4/5/20 8:25pm

I read the packet insert, where sensitivity and specificity is published

doctorcoug

4/5/20 8:30pm

It doesn’t have to be perfect. It gives a general sense of the immunity in the

Run-DMT

4/5/20 8:44pm

I absolutely agree with the value of a pop survey. But, with 50 percent false

doctorcoug

4/5/20 8:56pm

One of my favorite things on CB. Posters who know know more than MDs from

Blueto

4/5/20 8:03pm

Well, I shouldn't be such a downer. Serologic testing is a cool advance, but

doctorcoug

4/5/20 8:10pm

Aren’t you the guy who wanted us to wake you up only after we have a gold standard

JohnnyComeLately

4/5/20 8:32pm

Absolutely should be waiting to mass prescribe drugs outside a clinical trial

doctorcoug

4/5/20 8:42pm

Yep time we absolutely have right now.

JohnnyComeLately

4/5/20 8:51pm

MDs rarely do research. Why should we accept what they say at face value?

ldssdl

4/5/20 8:31pm

That’s an interesting statement

Toubibe

4/5/20 10:06pm

My previous post was in reference to published research. I’ve seen MDs get stuff

ldssdl

4/5/20 11:17pm

Good response

Toubibe

4/5/20 11:23pm

This is not a diagnostic test per se. it’s to provide evidence of prior exposure

Run-DMT

4/5/20 7:57pm

With good chance of some bad data. Telling a negative patient that they are

doctorcoug

4/5/20 8:04pm

Can I just say that I hate clicking on these articles

PJMort

4/5/20 7:55pm

Fast

Boanerges

4/5/20 7:58pm

If they can scale this quickly it’s a big deal

AZ Coug

4/5/20 8:11pm

I've been saying this for a few weeks. This is a much better indicator than testing to determine

unctoothman

4/5/20 8:33pm

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