If their projections were 5 times, 50 times, or even 100 times too high in terms of projected deaths and hospitalizations (hence drawing blowback that we've overreacted) then have we still done exactly what we should have?

Maybe this isn't what you were getting at, but I think that type of thinking is short-sighted and a cop-out for some really bad science that was circulating about a month ago. What happens if a much more dangerous and deadly strain circulates in 3 years, but society has been conditioned to take these warnings with a grain of salt because of how hard epidemiologists cried wolf on COVID-19? I just don't think it's a good thing for society to feel like they've been duped by epidemiologists that overstated the risks and pushed for drastic responses with little regard to the imact on daily lives, society, and the economy. I think the statement that it's good if we feel like we've over-reacted will ring pretty hollow for people who have lost their livelihoods based on the response to this virus.