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Apr 10, 2020
11:18
:19
am
Indy Coug
Loquacious Lummox
What were the underlying assumptions made then regarding mitigation and have those assumptions materialized
as actual experience rolled in?
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Indy Coug
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Indy Coug
Joined
Dec 20, 2001
Last login
Apr 28, 2024
Total posts
184,746 (9,833 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
That article about the UCSF "expert" panel people peddled on here a few weeks ago predicted 1.5 million US deaths from
YIsForBrigham
Poo Poo
4/10/20 11:16am
What were the underlying assumptions made then regarding mitigation and have those assumptions materialized
Indy Coug
4/10/20 11:18am
You know predictions change when variables change, right?
SUAVO
4/10/20 11:21am
Meant for OP
SUAVO
4/10/20 11:21am
That not what the article said. The article, of course, has now been scrubbed from the internet once UCSF realized
YIsForBrigham
4/10/20 11:24am
So, they said 1.5 million would die no matter what we did?
SUAVO
4/10/20 11:29am
Yes
YIsForBrigham
4/10/20 11:32am
No
The Shazad
4/10/20 11:45am
Not sure. They said 40-70% of Americans would get it no matter what and that a 1% mortality rate would hold
YIsForBrigham
4/10/20 11:21am
IMO, the models aren't the problem here, it's the assumptions which have been used. But let's be honest
Indy Coug
4/10/20 11:25am
There’s no reason to believe the mortality rate is much less than 1%. And
Jay Rick
4/10/20 11:49am
Alright. I'll put you down for the "1.5million Americans will die" prediction
YIsForBrigham
4/10/20 11:51am
Fair enough, even though that’s not really what a said. But I guess
Jay Rick
4/10/20 11:54am
I'll say it's still a high possibility, yes.
ReyOso
4/10/20 11:29am
^this
flyzag
4/10/20 11:45am
Keep the economy on total lockdown for 18 months?
RexIdaCoug
4/10/20 11:56am
I think this has to be the answer. Allowing this thing to infect substantial %
Jay Rick
4/10/20 12:08pm
(Meant for dingo below)
Jay Rick
4/10/20 12:08pm
I agree, although I'm not entirely optimistic yet.
ReyOso
4/10/20 12:16pm
We will have other tools besides total lockdown
CallingDingo
4/10/20 12:02pm
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