You are correct about Votto needing a couple more seasons to move to sure HOFer, primarily because of counting stats (needing 134 hits to 2000 and 16 HR to 300, 56 RBIs to 1000).

Say what you want about MVP, but He's a MVP winner (missing a 2nd by the closest margin in MLB MVP voting history), 3-time top 3, and 6-time top 10 finisher.

In terms of MVP shares, Dave Parker (who got a 5-place finish in 1986 with 0.3 WAR!) is the only one who has more than Votto that isn't in the HOF (other than the active - Pujols/Trout/Cabrera, the banned - Rose, the "banned" - Bonds, and ARod.)

I think he would get in, just not on the first ballot, it he were to retire today.