Oregon or cincy would knock out one of those top 12 non-conf champ teams. It is simple logic. And if both lost and dropped out of the top 12 then two teams would be displaced (this is assuming Cinn remains the highest ranked G5 champ). There are only 12 spots and the only guaranteed spots are all P5 champs and the highest ranked G5. So we want all those teams to already be in the top12 if we can break into it. We need enough ahead of BYU to drop out but not the ones that end up as these conf champs.