So if cincy and Ore were to end up in the teens that means two teams at any ranking in the top 12 except 1-4 can be left out and two of them will be left out. So if you are not a P5 champ or the runner up whose champ is in the CFP you are an at large and subject to being left out. So unless you are a P5 champ or the highest ranked G5 champ you better be in the top 12 or you are done.