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Mar 30, 2021
11:18
:03
pm
4thand19
Starter
There are two sides to that coin... odds of losing pre OT:
67% for the 3
50% for the 2
People are more loss averse than gain seeking, 2 would be the better option.
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4thand19
Previous username
Beat_the_U
Bio page
4thand19
Joined
Jan 24, 2012
Last login
May 3, 2024
Total posts
3,748 (2 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Math says go for 3 to win, not 2 to tie
insanobueno
3/30/21 11:06pm
And yet math failed them in their quest to win.
WJCougar
3/30/21 11:08pm
You are judging a prospective decision retrospectively. Doesn't really work that way. Just because something didn't work
shimmy
3/30/21 11:12pm
But with Riley fouling out just before regulation maybe Michigan had a better than 50% chance at winning in OT.
BW84
3/30/21 11:11pm
Even if they’d only hit two threes all game?
ray ray
3/30/21 11:16pm
There are two sides to that coin... odds of losing pre OT:
4thand19
3/30/21 11:18pm
Are you playing to win?
insanobueno
3/30/21 11:21pm
You want more time. That’s what you want.
Coach's Dad
3/30/21 11:24pm
Didn't mind the shot by the point guard, toed the line and got a good look, now
777
3/30/21 11:19pm
Both should have been taken to the hole. Wagner was bad all game. He shouldn’t
Coach's Dad
3/30/21 11:25pm
I'm talking about the shot by Mike Smith who pulled up with 3 secs left. Toed
777
3/30/21 11:36pm
I know. I still liked his chances going coast to coast with an offensive putback
Coach's Dad
3/30/21 11:40pm
I don't disagree, but we also saw what happened to the Baylor girl yesterday.
777
3/30/21 11:49pm
I'm not great with the math, but those numbers seem made up.
cougarmeister
3/30/21 11:23pm
This. His "math" is pulled from the ether.
paulb
3/30/21 11:27pm
Let's use those numbers (even though we shouldn't)
insanobueno
3/30/21 11:28pm
I think the two are independent events, so you wouldn’t multiply the probability
ray ray
3/30/21 11:35pm
They are independent, which is why you can do this
insanobueno
3/30/21 11:47pm
I still don’t think this math is correct.
ray ray
3/31/21 8:08am
Good thing we have real life data
insanobueno
3/31/21 8:37am
I still don't buy it based on that guy's website. I could be wrong, but doesn't
ray ray
3/31/21 10:05am
Another thing to consider is that at end of games refs are inclined to swallow
Duke Silver
3/30/21 11:32pm
Except I’ve seen plenty of refs call fouls at the end of games the last few
Coach's Dad
3/30/21 11:37pm
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