I think the two are independent events, so you wouldn’t multiply the probability

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Mar 30, 2021
11:35:00pm

ray ray All-American

I think the two are independent events, so you wouldn’t multiply the probability

A team with the ball down two shouldn’t have a 1in 5 chance of winning, there is no way that actual facts bear that out.

Having said that, mathematical probabilities are not my strong suit, so I defer to wiser CBers on this, but your math seems wrong to me.

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ray ray

Previous username: abe froman1
Bio page: ray ray
Joined: Sep 11, 2010
Last login: May 2, 2024
Total posts: 3,984 (8 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Math says go for 3 to win, not 2 to tie

insanobueno

3/30/21 11:06pm

And yet math failed them in their quest to win.

WJCougar

3/30/21 11:08pm

You are judging a prospective decision retrospectively. Doesn't really work that way. Just because something didn't work

shimmy

3/30/21 11:12pm

But with Riley fouling out just before regulation maybe Michigan had a better than 50% chance at winning in OT.

BW84

3/30/21 11:11pm

Even if they’d only hit two threes all game?

ray ray

3/30/21 11:16pm

There are two sides to that coin... odds of losing pre OT:

4thand19

3/30/21 11:18pm

Are you playing to win?

insanobueno

3/30/21 11:21pm

You want more time. That’s what you want.

Coach's Dad

3/30/21 11:24pm

Didn't mind the shot by the point guard, toed the line and got a good look, now

777

3/30/21 11:19pm

Both should have been taken to the hole. Wagner was bad all game. He shouldn’t

Coach's Dad

3/30/21 11:25pm

I'm talking about the shot by Mike Smith who pulled up with 3 secs left. Toed

777

3/30/21 11:36pm

I know. I still liked his chances going coast to coast with an offensive putback

Coach's Dad

3/30/21 11:40pm

I don't disagree, but we also saw what happened to the Baylor girl yesterday.

777

3/30/21 11:49pm

I'm not great with the math, but those numbers seem made up.

3/30/21 11:23pm

This. His "math" is pulled from the ether.

paulb

3/30/21 11:27pm

Let's use those numbers (even though we shouldn't)

insanobueno

3/30/21 11:28pm

I think the two are independent events, so you wouldn’t multiply the probability

ray ray

3/30/21 11:35pm

They are independent, which is why you can do this

insanobueno

3/30/21 11:47pm

I still don’t think this math is correct.

ray ray

3/31/21 8:08am

Good thing we have real life data

insanobueno

3/31/21 8:37am

I still don't buy it based on that guy's website. I could be wrong, but doesn't

ray ray

3/31/21 10:05am

Another thing to consider is that at end of games refs are inclined to swallow

Duke Silver

3/30/21 11:32pm

Except I’ve seen plenty of refs call fouls at the end of games the last few

Coach's Dad

3/30/21 11:37pm

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