Good thing we have real life data

Mar 31, 2021
8:37:37am

insanobueno 3rd String

NBA Win Probability Calculator

http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpCalc.php

In the NBA, the historic win probably for a team down 2 in regulation with 7 seconds left is 14% so 1 on 5 is generous even.

Shows that the fg percentages used initially are even lower in the last 5 Seconds of a game

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insanobueno

Bio page: insanobueno
Joined: Aug 31, 2016
Last login: May 17, 2024
Total posts: 1,437 (1 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Math says go for 3 to win, not 2 to tie

insanobueno

3/30/21 11:06pm

And yet math failed them in their quest to win.

WJCougar

3/30/21 11:08pm

You are judging a prospective decision retrospectively. Doesn't really work that way. Just because something didn't work

shimmy

3/30/21 11:12pm

But with Riley fouling out just before regulation maybe Michigan had a better than 50% chance at winning in OT.

BW84

3/30/21 11:11pm

Even if they’d only hit two threes all game?

ray ray

3/30/21 11:16pm

There are two sides to that coin... odds of losing pre OT:

4thand19

3/30/21 11:18pm

Are you playing to win?

insanobueno

3/30/21 11:21pm

You want more time. That’s what you want.

Coach's Dad

3/30/21 11:24pm

Didn't mind the shot by the point guard, toed the line and got a good look, now

777

3/30/21 11:19pm

Both should have been taken to the hole. Wagner was bad all game. He shouldn’t

Coach's Dad

3/30/21 11:25pm

I'm talking about the shot by Mike Smith who pulled up with 3 secs left. Toed

777

3/30/21 11:36pm

I know. I still liked his chances going coast to coast with an offensive putback

Coach's Dad

3/30/21 11:40pm

I don't disagree, but we also saw what happened to the Baylor girl yesterday.

777

3/30/21 11:49pm

I'm not great with the math, but those numbers seem made up.

cougarmeister

3/30/21 11:23pm

This. His "math" is pulled from the ether.

paulb

3/30/21 11:27pm

Let's use those numbers (even though we shouldn't)

insanobueno

3/30/21 11:28pm

I think the two are independent events, so you wouldn’t multiply the probability

ray ray

3/30/21 11:35pm

They are independent, which is why you can do this

insanobueno

3/30/21 11:47pm

I still don’t think this math is correct.

ray ray

3/31/21 8:08am

Good thing we have real life data

insanobueno

3/31/21 8:37am

I still don't buy it based on that guy's website. I could be wrong, but doesn't

ray ray

3/31/21 10:05am

Another thing to consider is that at end of games refs are inclined to swallow

Duke Silver

3/30/21 11:32pm

Except I’ve seen plenty of refs call fouls at the end of games the last few

NBA Win Probability Calculator

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