There’s a real estate crash coming and it’s going to be a hard one. My bet is

Apr 1, 2021
8:04:18am

BR549 Starter

within next year. Like the old farmer told me “one extreme is followed by the other.” I’ve seen this same scenario play out multiple times in my life already. Market gets overheated. It then doesn’t just cool, it crashes

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BR549

Bio page: BR549
Joined: Aug 22, 2018
Last login: Jun 5, 2024
Total posts: 3,289 (17 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

I've really started wondering about the results of a persistent decline in real estate values-

BeyondTheMark All-American

3/31/21 11:02pm

I’ve been wondering the same thing

TicoBrown

3/31/21 11:05pm

It's been 20 years of ridiculously low rates. It may not last forever, but it's

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:06pm

With Democrats piling onto Trumps spend-thriftiness it makes me think Carter-like Stagflation

BeyondTheMark

3/31/21 11:09pm

Yeah I have thought the same thing. The biggest difference is we have yet

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:12pm

Very difficult to predict but here are some thoughts

Jericho

3/31/21 11:11pm

Good thoughts. Inflation sort of HAS to happen if you want to reduce debt &/or

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:14pm

True, but the problem is that spending will continue to outpace inflation

Backcountry

3/31/21 11:22pm

It always seems to

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:24pm

That is the thing slowing me down on selling. If *general* inflation is coming, then

BeyondTheMark

3/31/21 11:19pm

How could prices not fall significantly when moratorium on evictions ends?

Bandersnatch

3/31/21 11:12pm

Depends. I haven't seen data on just how big this is. how much stuff are we

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:15pm

I think the numbers are massive, personally, but inflation could be massive too

Jericho

3/31/21 11:17pm

If nothing else, the reality is that there is essentially NO for sale inventory

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:22pm

I would say that we are DUE for a market correction, but I have been saying that

Jericho

3/31/21 11:24pm

I have thought that too. Been wondering lately though if the last few years have

jkccoug

3/31/21 11:27pm

looks like 4 million mortgages and a much higher number of apartments

Nat Gas Man

4/1/21 12:03am

I believe last I saw 1.4% of mortgages were 4 or more months behind which

cougarfann888

3/31/21 11:54pm

Because the banks don't want to foreclose on a bunch of people.

byubyu

3/31/21 11:19pm

Not if they don't want a bunch of those mortgages they're holding to suddenly become worthless

BeyondTheMark

3/31/21 11:20pm

You'd be surprised. Some banks who sold their mortgages to fannie mae but retained servicing, like Wells Fargo, have

vegasnative

3/31/21 11:52pm

I don't think there will be that many foreclosures. Prices have gone up enough

BYUFBDAD

3/31/21 11:58pm

Home prices are sticky.

BostonCougar

3/31/21 11:32pm

It makes sense if interest rates increase

Fargo

3/31/21 11:36pm

Not so. From 1970 to 1980, mortgage rates rose from about 7% to about 14%. During that time, home prices rose by nearly

Smack'sWife

4/1/21 12:07am

But that is the Stagflation era- inflation generally was outpacing interest rates and salaries were

BeyondTheMark

4/1/21 12:14am

This makes sense if those were the only factors, but interest rates increase whe

johnnybyu

4/1/21 9:37am

Rates can't go much higher for very long.

lyrok

3/31/21 11:54pm

a crash in the stock market would also affect the housing market, especially

Nat Gas Man

4/1/21 12:09am

You'll start to see "creative" financing like wraparounds.

YSMACK

4/1/21 12:49am

Inventory is apparently still very tight (link)

jkccoug

4/1/21 3:54am

There’s almost like a sort of deflation happening in the housing market

hansel

4/1/21 6:33am

There’s a real estate crash coming and it’s going to be a hard one. My bet is

BR549

4/1/21 8:04am

What other housing crash have you experienced in your life besides 2007-2010?

cougarfann888

4/1/21 8:42am

There are some markets that are susceptible to crashes. PHX, Miami, Vegas

Nat Gas Man

4/1/21 8:55am

Aside from the recent ones, the one in the 80s was really significant but

BR549

4/1/21 11:12am

The 07-10 is really the only housing crash we have had nationwide

cougarfann888

4/1/21 12:56pm

Not anytime soon

Backcountry

4/1/21 5:36pm

Not this time

Backcountry

4/1/21 8:44am

I agree on the crash but don't think it will be as hard or as long as 2007-8

johnnybyu

4/1/21 9:39am

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