I’d say win 5.5/10ish on average. But that isn’t bad at all.

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Jun 13, 2021
2:34:55pm

Turnpike Lane Monday Morning Quarterback

I’d love to see how they do with the recruiting bump that would follow. Pipe dream.

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Turnpike Lane

Previous username: lawboy
Bio page: Turnpike Lane
Joined: Dec 14, 2004
Last login: Oct 15, 2023
Total posts: 124,282 (29,256 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Independence has boosted P5 losses, but not really P5 wins

krindorr

6/13/21 2:20pm

All P5 games are not created equal. Any info on the relative strength of those

kudzucoug

6/13/21 2:22pm

Not yet; I did a full breakdown of it for the independence era

krindorr

6/13/21 2:26pm

Attached Data

krindorr

6/13/21 2:35pm

that's very interesting and it suggests that if BYU was in a P5 conference

run26

6/13/21 2:23pm

I think recruiting would be better in a P5 conference so we’d be better than 500

IntelCougar

6/13/21 2:27pm

Not at first, but after some improvement/recruiting, 100% agree

krindorr

6/13/21 2:27pm

I’d say win 5.5/10ish on average. But that isn’t bad at all.

Turnpike Lane

6/13/21 2:34pm

This is about where I peg them also

krindorr

6/13/21 2:36pm

I mean... Yes. This is the reality

Hotlanta

6/13/21 8:19pm

No it doesn't, recruiting would completely change. Take a look at Utah.

bluescholar

6/13/21 9:01pm

Take out Utah and the numbers look completely different.

shoganai

6/13/21 2:29pm

Why would you take out Utah? They are a P5…can’t pick and choose stats.

Graystation

6/13/21 2:31pm

Never said you should. Just pointing out their impact.

shoganai

6/13/21 2:33pm

That makes no sense though…the entire post was about P5 wins/losses.

Graystation

6/13/21 2:34pm

I often find it interesting when statistics are disproportionately impacted by

shoganai

6/13/21 2:47pm

Ha! I really like most of your posts. Just found this one odd.

Graystation

6/13/21 2:49pm

Here is why Shoganai's post is interesting (Warning: Nerd Alert)

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/13/21 3:57pm

Our losing record against P5s can be entirely accounted for by the Utah game.

shoganai

6/13/21 4:02pm

I totally agree. We continue to lay eggs against Utah. There is something anomalous about the last 10 yea against Utah

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/13/21 4:21pm

Something, something…remove relevant data to make BYU football look better.

Graystation

6/13/21 4:39pm

Something, something, doesn’t understand how to interpret data

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/13/21 4:51pm

This is a great point. Nuance matters.

here's to hoping

6/13/21 5:18pm

The problem in your analysis is that you're treating Utah like it's the same

BigBrotherUte

6/14/21 1:35am

I agree it's worth looking, but every data set will have anomalies

krindorr

6/13/21 8:19pm

What the data says is that it is statistically very unlikely that Utah has won this many games in a row

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/13/21 8:30pm

Oh, I agree that it's very unlikely that we lose that many in a row

krindorr

6/13/21 8:48pm

<< Deleted >>

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/13/21 9:20pm

If you really break down each matchup to coaching and player talent, and remove

BigBrotherUte

6/14/21 1:42am

When I got a Masters Degree in Statistics at the University of Utah they never taught me such amazing concepts like that

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/14/21 4:52am

When did I say you can't statistically compare them?

BigBrotherUte

6/14/21 5:00pm

If you would like to discuss the statistics that were presented, I'm happy to do that

Greg Kite's 'stache

6/14/21 5:37pm

In any given game it's unlikely that BYU beats Utah; but the repeated losses...?

krindorr

6/14/21 6:59am

Zzzzzzz.

DrJazzy

6/13/21 5:42pm

Great point. Also, if you magically add 391 P5 wins, #s are different as well.

Linescratcher

6/13/21 2:34pm

RE: Great point. Also, if you magically add 391 P5 wins, #s are different as

here's to hoping

6/13/21 5:18pm

GK’s post was insightful. Shoganai’s was cherry picking

Linescratcher

6/13/21 5:55pm

It would probably be appropriate to not count 2020 in the independence averages

shoganai

6/13/21 2:53pm

That's fair; can't believe I didn't do that - my fault

krindorr

6/13/21 3:34pm

Important to remember our team was better the decade before

kimdaddy35

6/13/21 4:20pm

I haven't seen any strong arguments for independence

krindorr

6/13/21 4:31pm

What if the AAC doesn't want BYU? You act like BYU could take it whenever they

byusage

6/13/21 4:43pm

I'd imagine football only

krindorr

6/13/21 5:15pm

Our long term win% vs P5s is just over 40%. Independence is in line with that rate.

Indy Coug

6/13/21 4:33pm

I love posts like this that show actual facts. Kudos!

MrClark

6/13/21 7:32pm

You’re comparing independence against a situation that used to exist and cannot

gwalker

6/13/21 7:38pm

Recruiting dropped drastically when we left the MWC

krindorr

6/13/21 8:12pm

So, we're still saying recruiting tanked? How come it never showed on the field?

bluescholar

6/13/21 9:06pm

....but it has shown on field - BYU was better in the 2000s than in the 2010s

krindorr

6/13/21 9:52pm

Despite TH's assertions that BYU wants to play at the highest level possible and

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