Honestly, my experience, from growing up, mission and now married life, and 6 years on high council ... roughly 50% work out right.
What I'm not sure is if it's 50% of Wards, or 50% of people in wards.
What I mean is this ... I think there probably WERE people in our "letdown" ward after Grad School who had a good tight community ... and maybe that is the problem, they didn't want to let in a postdoc and family that were leaving in a year or two. It's something I worry about in our current ward (which I think is pretty awesome) ... that maybe we are NOT great at letting in new people.
I know one ward in our stake that I worked with on High Council ... who some people came up to me as an "outsider" to say the ward was not at all friendly and was very cliquish. BUT I also know that there ARE people in that ward that like it as well.
SO .... good luck in your new situation ... I know I really worry about the people we kind of "lost" in COVID in our ward, as I'm sure they do exist. We had two big strong families move in, and I know the youth in ONE of those families integrated in quickly, but the other family not so well. (Kind of back to my 50% experience again...)
GO do it ... make the community you want ... and keep your eyes open to who else might be looking for the new community too.