Get to 14 now and let the newer programs mature into P5 status. After OU & Texas leave they'd still be at a solid 12, then add two more with the possibility of four depending on other defections. If you're among the 8 remaining, you know you'd jump at an invite elsewhere so you have to prepare knowing each of the others would do the same.
B12 Leftovers
BYU
Houston
Cincinnati
UCF
Next 2-4 among: Memphis/SDSU/Boise/UNLV/USF/CSU