Oct 11, 2021
6:15:04pm
6:15:04pm
That's a really good point
If I came to you and said we were going to play a game
We're going to take five dice and roll them. If they're anything besides five 6s, I'll give you $100. But if they ARE five 6s, you owe me $750,000.
Your expected value of playing this game with me is winning $3.54. So by that it's a good choice to play (assuming you can play it infinitely many times). But in a small sample size, the downside is so massive and the upside so relatively small, there's no way I would choose to play
We're going to take five dice and roll them. If they're anything besides five 6s, I'll give you $100. But if they ARE five 6s, you owe me $750,000.
Your expected value of playing this game with me is winning $3.54. So by that it's a good choice to play (assuming you can play it infinitely many times). But in a small sample size, the downside is so massive and the upside so relatively small, there's no way I would choose to play
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- krindorr
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- Oct 5, 2020
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- May 6, 2024
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10/11/21 2:56pm
10/11/21 6:08pm
10/11/21 3:00pm
People in the NFL and NCAA are going for it on 4th down more than ever. The analytics are clear. It was the right call.
10/11/21 3:07pm
10/11/21 3:15pm
10/11/21 4:06pm
10/11/21 4:31pm
10/11/21 6:15pm