benefit. But I don't think the risk/reward ratio is anywhere near that skewed in a football game. In your specific example it is a good example of marginal utility. Your marginal utility when given an extra $100 is not that great, but the downside of $750,000 is extreme and makes it not worth the risk. A similar argument can be made that when you are up 10 with 7 min left in the game then it makes more sense to punt in that situation because the marginal value of scoring more points is not that much as you are already winning and there is not much time left. On the flip side when already down or early in the game then the marginal value of the points goes up. Given that we were trailing the marginal value of us getting more points was extremely high. And from midfield it is not a given they would have scored if we miss the 4th down conversion anyway. I would not have gone for it 4th and 2 from our own 25 where they would already be in field goal range, and a conversation there is still 40 yards from field goal range. Converting 4th and 2 from midfield only puts you 15 yards from field goal range. the upside far outweighs the downside, especially when trailing