First off, when you're looking at the top 25 or 30 guys in the state, you pretty quickly get to guys that Utah doesn't necessarily want. For example, 4 of the top 30 in-state guys are going to Utah State, but none to Utah. That's not because Utah State is beating Utah on the recruiting trail, but because you get far enough down and there's players that aren't priorities or targets for Utah (or BYU for that matter).

Looking at the guys Utah generally targets, that corresponds (this year) to about the top 10 in-state guys being definite targets and 11-15 or so being potential targets (depending on fit, evaluation etc). That's not exact, but a loose framework to consider.

That said, even if we take that as being the case, Utah doesn't have any of the top 10 or top 15 this year, which is a warning bell. They've got several other good recruits, but they also need to not completely cede the territory around them. And they definitely would have liked to get guys like Barton, Hagen, Moa, Maile, Tabaracci etc and doesn't look like they will.