us playing this week whereas I think there's maybe a 5-10% chance of the committee dropping Baylor below us if they lose to Oklahoma St. The only way that it's probably even possible that they'd drop below us would be if Utah won (thus improving our win vs them) AND Baylor was blown out by Oklahoma St. The issue with that scenario is that an Oklahoma St blowout over Baylor could cause them to leapfrog Cincinnati and make the playoff instead which makes it a moot point. For that to not happen we'd also need Cincinnati to throttle Houston by even more than Oklahoma St beats Baylor. Even that might not be enough as the committee could still opt to have Baylor ahead of us regardless.

Basically, all of the following things need to happen for there to even be a chance of making the NY6, and even at that point the chances would be somewhat slim and we'd more than likely still be left out. It's the only path that I see as a remote possibility, though.
1. Alabama beats Georgia
2. Oklahoma St beats Baylor by 30+ (enough that the committee feels they have to drop them due to the margin of loss)
3. Cincinnati beats Houston by 40+ (has to look more impressive than Oklahoma St to avoid being jumped by them in the rankings)
4. Michigan beats Iowa (prevents Iowa from stealing an extra bid)
5. Utah beats Oregon (this doesn't matter as much as the others - but the reasoning would be to make our win agains them look more impressive).