Happen so doesn’t matter, but your point is valid.
Next year, BYU starts ranked in top 15 and schedule is arguably stronger (fewer P5, but stronger programs). Far more meat on it than this year’s Cincy, so running the table (while difficult and unlikely) means 99% certainty IMO of a CFP berth if Oregon / Arkansas / Baylor / ND end op having decent seasons.
NY6 would also be highly probable with 1 loss, depending on which loss that were to be and how the rest of the field does.
Would be a poetically just way to end Independence, if you ask me!
Biggest factor is Algeier though. Very unlikely he returns, and without another top-flight RB emerging, I don’t see next year turning out as well as this year has.