There's a pretty good analysis by TCuz on how the committee feels about lower ranked teams losing in CCGs.
https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=27559982
Spoiler alert - they don't drop at all.
So then it seems more and more unlikely that we'd pass Baylor.
Maybe the better argument is to hopefully pass Mich St, but that only can happen if we have Utah lay the smack down on Oregon