2021

Trevor Lawrence - The first can't-miss prospect since Andrew Luck. If anyone is ready to start in the NFL, it should be him.

Zach Wilson - The Jets didn't have anyone else to start. But they chose to go through growing pains.

Trey Lance - The plan was never for him to start, as a 20 year old rookie who only played on year at FCS. He's been a project since day one.

Justin Fields - Andy Dalton started the year, he took over in Week 6.

Mac Jones - Started the year after beating out Cam Newton. He's been the only rookie to look solid.

2020 - 2 Hit, 1 TBD, 1 Miss

Joe Burrow - Started from day one, threw for 2688 yards, 13 TD, 5 INT in 10 games before getting hurt. Looked awesome, still awesome. Hit. 

Tua Tagovailoa - Started in Week 6, 1814 yards, 11 TD, 5 INT. Coming off a bad injury, looked fine, didn't wow anyone. Same story now. TBD. 

Justin Herbert - Started in Week 2 because of the weird punctured lung thing. 4336 yards, 31 TD, 10 INT. Looked awesome, still awesome, will be a top 5 QB. Hit. 

Jordan Love - Hasn't played at all because Aaron. Miss. 

2019 - 1 Hit, 3 Miss

Kyler Murray - Started Week 1. 3722 yards, 20 TD 12 INT. Year 2 he had 3971 yards, 26 TD, 12 INT. Now he's an MVP candidate. Hit. 

Daniel Jones - Started Week 1. 3027 yards, 24 TD, 12 INT. Year 2 he had 2943 yards, 11 TD, 10 INT. He's probably getting replaced.

Dwayne Haskins - Started in Week 3, then sat again until Week 9 (not sure if it was due to injury or what). 1365 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT. Year 2 he got cut because of terrible and breaking Covid regulations.

Drew Lock - Round 2 guy. Started in the last 5 games of his rookie year, he's now a backup to Teddy Bridgewater.

2018 - 3 Hit, 1 Miss, 1 Airball. Starting here I'm not going to go through and put in stats. They aren't "figuring it out" anymore, they're either good or they aren't. 

Baker Mayfield - Started Week 3, been a good starter. Hit. 

Sam Darnold - Started Week 1, he's terrible. Miss. 

Josh Allen - Started Week 1, has steadily improved each year and was awesome last year. Hit.

Josh Rosen - Started Week 3. Actual trashcan. 

Lamar Jackson - Started Week 11, played in a few games as a wildcat guy. Rockstar. Hit. 

2017 - 2 Hit, 1 Miss

Mitch Trubisky - Started Week 1. Not a good starter, one of the best backups in the league. Miss. 

Patrick Mahomes - Started Week 17, but not playoffs. He's the poster child for letting players sit in today's NFL. Keep in mind though, Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith. Obviously not an elite QB, but the Chiefs were in the playoffs and winning their division with Smith. Kind of a Jimmy G - Trey Lance type situation, where you have a good QB but need to upgrade. Andy Reid has said that Mahomes was ready to go if needed in Year 1. Hit. 

Deshaun Watson - Came in at halftime Week 1, started Week 2. Awesome QB, bad massage client. Hit. 

2016 - 1.5 Hit, 1.5 Miss

Jared Goff - Started Week 11, average to almost good QB. Still a starter, on his way out. Half hit, half miss. 

Carson Wentz - Started Week 1, good QB unless Jalen Hurts is within 100 feet. Hit. 

Paxton Lynch - Was the backup QB in Year 1, and only played when Siemian got hurt. Injured in Year 2, served as backup. Backup in Year 3. Irrelevant after that. Miss. 

2015 - .5 hit, 1.5 miss

Jameis Winston - Started Week 1, still a starting QB in the NFL. Still a starter, but on his second team, future TBD. Half miss, half hit. 

Marcus Mariota - Started Week 1, probably the best backup in the NFL. Miss. 

Since 2015, most guys start in their first season. Not everyone starts in Week 1, but most guys are starting by the Trade Deadline. Most of the guys that played early have hit. There has been obvious improvement from these guys, but you could see flashes early on that they could play. And by "flashes," I don't mean one throw/play in a game. They had their ups and their downs, but they had whole drives and games where they looked good. If you can play, you can play year one. If you can't, you can't. There will be growing pains for sure, but those will happen in Year 1 and they will happen in Year 4. Might as well see what you've got early.