I know several people who bought in SLC, Austin, San Antonio and Phoenix. Just lacking contacts in Boise to hit for the cycle of craziest housing markets.

All but 2 (parents bought their homes for them) are paying more than their rent and did so just to get in the game. I can't speak to the personal finances of all of them but more than a few have disclosed being extremely levered up. One of them had to shed a $300 a month car payment to get their DTI low enough for the loan.

As you pointed out this still seems fine as long as everything else stays equal and they make their payments but I believe there is more to the story. During the boom millions of apartment units broke ground. Most of those will be completed this year and we are already seeing vacancies rise. I know in Austin and SA there are some awesome move in incentives out there and rents are actually down from their peak despite being up year over year. If rents go lower it will inevitably impact home buying at least a little, it always does.

The more troubling factor is whats happening in the wider economy. The savings rate in the U.S. just plummeted below pre pandemic levels. retail and car sales are all down. People are tapped out. If we somehow see a soft landing out of all of this, its still just another can kick. In 10-20 years or more all of these people are still going to run out of money. U.S. population is only growing due to immigration, much of it full of unskilled labor. Who will be there to get the value out of these homes?