doesn't steal it all with post-hoc fines. Basically his story that he was more careless than fraudulent and that the failure was mostly to do with bad controls and short-term liquidity problems in the face of a run appears to be pretty close to 100% true. Bankruptcy will recover ~$13bn, depositors are owed $8bn, and if the government will waive its absurd fines or just levy them on SBF himself instead of on FTX as an entity, his equity holders will also be made whole or close to it.

Doesn't mean he doesn't go to jail. But the press and prosecutor have vastly overblown this, assuming huge self enrichment when in fact mostly he "blew" the money on illiquid investments he should not have made in the form that he did and at the time he did it. There is a crime but it is not what we were all led to believe.