Idaho State, Fresno State, Washington State, Colorado, and either Oregon State or USC. Then the Arizona game would get them to six if they win. Like I said, that's the swing game on their schedule.
I know you likely think they'll lose to both Oregon State and USC but I just cannot fathom them losing 6 games in a row from Oct. 4 to Nov. 15. It's just not going to happen. They'll play above their heads in one of those games and steal a win.
Given that the Arizona game is at RES, I actually lean toward them winning that game and going 6-6.
Utah is not as bad a team as many on this board think they are. They're not going to win 3 or 4 games this year. 5 is the minimum, 6 might be most likely, and 7 might be the max if they have a ton of things go their way.
***Disclaimer. This is just my opinion. This does not mean I secretly like Utah. I hate them. I hope they lose every game by 100 points and they have to get rid of their football program. But they'll probably go 6-6 this year.