#2 seems wrong to me. However, I think you are right on with regard to #1 and #3.

RE: #2. Just a few brief points.

First, correlation does not equal causation.
Second, I'm not even conceding correlation on this issue. Exhibit A: (Somebody link to a picture of #7 TCU's crowd this past week or from any game for that matter). Exhibit B-Z: USC in the 90's, Alabama from mid 90's til they hired Saban, Michigan after Lloyd Carr, Texas of the 80's and 90's and 10's.

Look I'm not saying fans aren't important but unless you are giving money DIRECTLY to the program, you aren't really helping that much. Paying for tickets, airfare, and hotels for away games doesn't really help the program much at all. (If it did, the most help would probably be in scheduling, which we aren't really excelling at right now). If what I've been told is true, even buying concessions in LES doesn't even qualify as helping the program. Now people that join the cougar club and make real donations do help the program out. And obviously more fans help the program.

Fans are important to a program, but I disagree on fans being the "the key" to a successful D1 program. Maybe I'm just parsing words here, but just my opinion.