The risk in joining the Big12 was next to zero. If things fall apart, you just end up independent again, back where they started.

Additionally, by making the jump, they would have been putting themselves in the same position as other programs like Baylor, Iowa State, Texas Tech, etc. You think those programs would have been left with nowhere to go in the event of a collapse. At the very worst, they make a new conference with some pretty solid programs. It would have been recognized as better than the MWC. And if that's still not satisfactory, the independence option isn't going anywhere.

You make the point that WCC affiliation would have been difficult to rebuild in the event of Big12 collapse. You're probably right, but BYU would have still been grouped with Baylor, TTech and the likes. In all seriousness, even that result would have been better than the current situation.

I, and many others, were saying all of this during that period. If the BYU admin did, in fact, act too cautious, that is simply a reflection of how out of touch with the realities of college athletics they really were.