How can you expect peoople to take you seriously when you don't except explanations that are just as plausible as yours... You also in your analysis didn't account for Matt CASTLE s numbers... he did what all QB's do and had the balls inflated and rubbed to his likings....
You discount changes in personlle which most likely is teh biggest cause.. When your target has hands the size of Gronk and is as big as Gronk vs TE (X) chances are there will be less fumbles. Welker hasn't exactly been a fumble machine since joining the Broncos either and he has been hurt there.

As another piece of evidence. IF underinflation lead to less fumbles, then the opposite would hold true... Has Green Bays fumbles increased and are higher than league average with Rodgers admittedly over inflating his balls? The answer before you take the time FWIW is no.

None of this means Pats didn't cheat. It just means your theory has no validity.