But...
1. We aren't getting the best LDS recruits anymore...or at least losing many of them
2. Other than conference expansion/affiliation, I think the HC can still be an overall positive...especially since they've tweaked the enforcement (as they should have).
In the past, it was great playing for the Church's flagship university and BYU's winning tradition helped as well. But I think those two attributes aren't as strong anymore (7 straight losses to Utah doesn't help that).
I still think it's mostly about the lack of funds to support a top-25 type program.