If they have a year where they beat Gonzaga they slip and fall against someone terrible.
If they avoid slip ups they get blasted against Gonzaga or St Mary’s.
So no matter what they can’t win the conference. The good team is to good, the bad teams are too bad. And when I say the bad teams are too bad I mean that it’s a 1 bid conference and BYU can’t get in even though I think they have had teams that were good enough to be in the ncaa tournament but their conference strength kept them out.