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Mar 14, 2013
12:47
:30
pm
SandYFan
Ugh I hate this thing. I firmly believe it doesn't matter if you swap or not.
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SandYFan
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SandYFan
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Jan 3, 2011
Last login
Oct 21, 2020
Total posts
63,509 (1,537 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
The Monty "Max" Hall problem - Anyone else take issue with it besides the Utes?
MightyFreakingCougar
3/14/13 12:44pm
Ugh I hate this thing. I firmly believe it doesn't matter if you swap or not.
SandYFan
3/14/13 12:47pm
but if you actually simulate it yourself hundreds of times
COUGALICIOUS
3/14/13 12:50pm
but the odds end up being exactly the same
Belboz
3/14/13 12:55pm
No, you choose one and there's a 2/3 chance it is behind 2 OR 3
gustav88
3/14/13 1:00pm
and then there are 2 remaining doors.
Belboz
3/14/13 1:02pm
No because the information revealed to you depends on which door you pick
cheezedawg
3/14/13 1:38pm
I agree that the additional information negates the original odds.
61_Shasta
3/14/13 1:05pm
The fallacy is thinking new info was revealed. It was not.
dilbert
3/14/13 1:20pm
Perhaps new information has not been revealed but the game has still changed
61_Shasta
3/14/13 1:42pm
I don't know why we are debating this, but new information is revealed
cheezedawg
3/14/13 1:44pm
Whether that's what you believe or not
The Shazad
3/14/13 2:13pm
No, it is not intuitive, but I don't take issue with it because it is right.
workindev
3/14/13 12:50pm
I don't understand how this relates to Max Hall
chodakus
3/14/13 12:50pm
We've been through it enough already.
Belboz
3/14/13 12:51pm
I must have missed those elusive conversations. Science has this one wrong!
MightyFreakingCougar
3/14/13 1:05pm
You should always change -- now a 2/3 chance of other door
gustav88
3/14/13 12:53pm
Who is that in your Sig, cause that's awesome
RaggaeCoug
3/14/13 12:58pm
Marshall Henderson. Yeah, he's awesome.
Belboz
3/14/13 1:03pm
Wait is that Marsha from Utah?
RaggaeCoug
3/14/13 1:05pm
yes.
Belboz
3/14/13 1:07pm
Always change, it is the right choice
mpfunk
3/14/13 12:59pm
Linked explanation
gustav88
3/14/13 1:01pm
It took reading that to convince me.
Tricky
3/14/13 2:50pm
Yeah, thanks for that btw. Really helped. Funny all the crap she got.
MightyFreakingCougar
3/14/13 4:12pm
the real question is why do they always use a car and two goats in this question
touchdownbyu
3/14/13 1:35pm
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