Mar 14, 2013
1:20:51pm
1:20:51pm
The fallacy is thinking new info was revealed. It was not.
You already knew that between the two did you didn't choose, at least one of them had a goat behind it. You knew that because there is only one car. So when the host opened one of the doors and showed you a goat, all he did was confirm the fact that you already knew--at least one of those doors had a goat behind it.
But you didn't learn anything else, so the probabilities didn't change. There is still a 1/3 chance the car is behind the door you chose and 2/3 chance it isn't.
But you didn't learn anything else, so the probabilities didn't change. There is still a 1/3 chance the car is behind the door you chose and 2/3 chance it isn't.
Originally posted on Mar 14, 2013 at 1:20:51pm
Message modified by dilbert on Mar 14, 2013 at 1:20:51pm
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